31.07.202607:45 Forex Analyse & Reviews: Strong Microsoft results won't erase risks — Fed and Iran conflict weigh on markets

US equity index futures initially rallied on strong quarterly results from Microsoft but later pared gains amid renewed US–Iran tensions and hawkish signals from the latest Federal Reserve meeting.

Investor attention was also held by a sharp drop in Meta shares, adding nervousness to the tech front.

S&P 500 futures were up about 0.1% at 7,361.50 by 09:49 Moscow time. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.39% to 27,448.50, while Dow Jones futures were flat near 51,764.0.

The initial optimism followed a "black" session on Wall Street, where large losses in the technology complex, especially among chipmakers, largely offset otherwise positive earnings reports. Traders were unsettled not only by geopolitics: volatility in the Asian session, where the KOSPI (highly sensitive to chip stocks) swung between sharp gains and losses, signaled a choppy tape for Wall Street as well.

Microsoft drove the early lift. Microsoft shares jumped by nearly 9% in Wednesday after-hours trading following a strong fiscal Q4 (June-ended) driven by Azure growth and robust demand for AI solutions. The company raised revenue and cloud guidance. Microsoft also trimmed its 2026 capex guidance to $175bn from $190bn, and Q1 capex came in a touch light at about $50bn — a welcome sign for investors concerned about heavy AI and datacentre spending.

Meta, by contrast, disappointed: Meta Platforms' stock fell by roughly 7% in after-hours trading following weaker-than-expected Q2 results and a disappointing Q3 outlook. The company raised the low end of its 2026 capex guidance to $130–145bn from $125–145bn. Meta's earnings illustrated the growing tension between large AI investments and restructuring costs, which in part offset core digital-advertising revenues.

Microsoft's and Meta's reports are the lead-ins to a busy tech week — Amazon and Apple are set to report on Thursday. Wednesday's negative tape on Wall Street reflected the twin pressures of semiconductor weakness and signs that monetary policy may tighten. The Fed, as expected, left interest rates unchanged, but the meeting revealed a growing split among policymakers over the future path of rates. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered little clarity beyond reiterating commitment to the 2% inflation target, without spelling out specific next steps.

Therefore, early US trading offered a mix of conflicting signals: strong corporate prints were outweighed by geopolitical tensions and monetary risks, leaving the market highly sensitive to new data and commentary.