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Bitcoin is like a spring — compressing more and more, ready to fire. Yet, the X-date keeps getting pushed back. Triggers aren't lacking: investor belief in an end to the Middle East conflict has already helped US stock indices rewrite records three times. Unfortunately, BTC/USD bulls have only managed to push against the upper band of the mid-term consolidation range of 65,000–76,000.
Inflows into Bitcoin-focused ETFs for the week to April 17 totaled $332 million. Major banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, continue to follow competitors by launching crypto-specialized ETFs. Michael Saylor's Strategy, a pioneer of crypto treasuries, bought about $2.6 billion of tokens in the last two weeks alone; its shares jumped some 16% over the same period.
It looks as if demand for Bitcoin is not lacking. However, miners — worried about rising power costs and shrinking margins — are selling crypto to diversify their businesses. AI technologies and their data centers are proving more efficient than crypto mining. CoinShares estimates that by December, those activities will account for 70% of miners' business, up from 30% today.
When demand rises while supply also increases, speculators may decide BTC/USD's fate. Funding rates on Bitcoin perpetuals have been negative for 46 consecutive days — meaning market participants are clinging to shorts, betting on a decline. If price continues to rise, a so?called short squeeze could occur: the spring snaps and fires. Short sellers will sooner or later have to realize losses and cover, which would fuel a rapid crypto rally.
There is a second scenario: speculators win and Bitcoin plunges. That would happen if markets swing from greed to fear amid an escalation in the Middle East. Donald Trump has threatened to bomb every power plant and bridge if Iran refuses a deal. Seven weeks of war have brought no resolution. Demand for the US dollar as a safe haven would rise, and BTC/USD would follow stocks down.
If Washington and Tehran find common ground, improved global risk appetite will support risk assets — and crypto would likely benefit as well.
Technically, on the daily chart, BTC/USD has bounced off dynamic support given by the moving average. A return above 76,000 would justify adding to existing longs. Conversely, a drop below 73,600 would be a reason to consider selling.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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