The GBP/USD currency pair saw a slight downward correction on Friday, as shown on the hourly chart. The upward trend remains intact, as the British pound actively rose on Wednesday and Thursday. Thus, a small correction on the last day of the week was expected. Additionally, the British macroeconomic backdrop, as is often the case, left much to be desired. While industrial production volumes in October increased more than expected (by 1.1% instead of 0.7%), GDP for the same month came in at -0.1% against forecasts of +0.1%. Therefore, this set of reports cannot be regarded as entirely positive for the British pound, and it failed to support the currency.
Next week, the GBP/USD pair may see significant volatility in both directions. Important reports will be released nearly every day: business activity, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), unemployment, and inflation, both in the UK and the US. The highlight will be the Bank of England's meeting, where a decision to cut the key rate is quite likely. However, the market is not entirely convinced about this option, as the current forecast indicates that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will vote 4-5 in favor of a cut. Yet just one additional vote in the "hawkish" direction would yield entirely different voting results.
On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal of note was formed on Friday. During the US trading session, the pair settled below the critical line but returned to the 1.3360-1.3377 range within a few hours, where it completed the trading week. This signal could have been ignored as it formed just a few hours before the market closed.
The COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has fluctuated in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross each other and are mostly close to the zero mark. They are currently at almost the same level, indicating a roughly equal amount of buy and sell positions.
The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as clearly shown on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The Fed will reduce the rate over the next 12 months, regardless. Demand for the dollar will decline in any case. According to the latest COT report (from October 28) on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,000 BUY contracts and 10,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 3,500 contracts over the week. However, this data is outdated, and more recent figures are not available.
In 2025, the pound experienced significant growth, but it is important to understand that there is only one reason for this: the policy of Donald Trump. Once this reason is mitigated, the dollar may start to rise, but no one knows when that will happen. It doesn't matter how quickly the net position for the pound is increasing or decreasing (if it is decreasing). The dollar's position is falling in any case and typically at a faster rate.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to develop an upward trend. We believe that growth in the medium term will continue regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop, and the correction on the daily timeframe will eventually conclude, or may already have concluded. However, in December, much will depend on US labor market data, unemployment, and inflation, which will determine the Fed's future monetary policy direction.
For December 15, we highlight the following important levels for trading: 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3201-1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533-1.3548, and 1.3584. The Senkou Span B (1.3281) and Kijun-sen (1.3360) lines can also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the stop-loss order to breakeven once the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Monday, no significant events are scheduled in the UK or the US. However, in the remainder of the week, important data will be released almost every day. Thus, we may see a "boring Monday," but the rest of the week is unlikely to be dull.
Today, traders may consider selling if the price consolidates below the trend line and below the Kijun-sen line, with targets at 1.3307 and the Senkou Span B line. Long positions will again become relevant if there is consolidation above the 1.3369-1.3377 area, with a target at 1.3420.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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