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14.09.202612:02 विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: EUR/USD – September 14: ECB Policy Fails to Support the Euro

Relevance up to 08:00 2026-09-15 UTC+00

On Friday, EUR/USD continued its decline toward the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1564. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and some upward movement toward the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1621. Consolidation below 1.1564 would allow traders to expect a continuation of the decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1519.

Exchange Rates 14.09.2026 analysis

The wave situation on the hourly chart has turned "bearish." The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low. Geopolitical developments remain consistently negative and have every chance of escalating in the near future. The market expects the FOMC to tighten monetary policy. These two factors have brought bearish traders back into the market.

The news background on Friday supported neither the bulls nor the bears, and I would first like to remind you of Thursday's events. In my view, they were and remain much more significant than the US inflation report. The ECB decided to tighten monetary policy for the second time in the past three months, while Christine Lagarde said that she expects inflation to increase in the coming months. The ECB raised its inflation forecasts for 2026–2028 and also stated that it was prepared to continue tightening policy if the consumer price index continues to rise. Let me remind you that inflation in the European Union has been rising throughout 2026, and a single rate hike has failed to stop this process. Two rate hikes are also unlikely to stop it, as oil prices have now returned to $110 per barrel. Thus, the ECB adopted a clearly "hawkish" stance, which the market chose to overlook. By contrast, the US inflation report, which showed no changes in August, was interpreted as a "green light" for the FOMC. Following this report, the market became even more confident that the Fed would tighten policy this Wednesday, prompting bearish traders to launch a new attack that resulted in the "bullish" trend being broken.

Exchange Rates 14.09.2026 analysis

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1649, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and began declining toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1526. A rebound from this level would favor the US dollar and some upward movement toward 1.1649. Consolidation below 1.1526 would increase the chances of a continued decline toward the next 23.6% retracement level at 1.1449. No emerging divergences are currently observed in any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Exchange Rates 14.09.2026 analysis

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 4,968 Long positions and opened 12,723 Short positions. During the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared because of the war in Iran, while over the past twenty-four weeks, the situation has become more balanced amid market hopes for an end to the conflict. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 198,000, compared with 241,000 Short positions. The bears remain in the lead, but their advantage is narrowing.

Overall, over the long term, major market players continue to show considerable interest in the euro. Certainly, events of various kinds around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war appears to end and then starts again. However, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

  • European Union – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (15:15 UTC).

On September 14, the economic events calendar contains one item that is of little interest. The economic background may have no impact on market sentiment on Monday or may have only a very weak impact.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Buying the pair is possible following a rebound from the 1.1564 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1621. Selling trades were possible following consolidation below 1.1621 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1551. The target has been reached. New selling opportunities will arise on a close below 1.1564, with a target of 1.1519.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1325–1.1712 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849–1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.

*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |

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