Official Washington, however, represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, calls Iran's demands unacceptable and stresses that the strait must remain fully open as an international waterway without approvals or fees. Iranian officials insist the strait will remain closed until the US lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports and returns to the 14?point Islamabad memorandum.
Control of the Strait of Hormuz has proven a more effective weapon for Tehran than a nuclear arsenal, giving it the ability to directly affect the global economy. Attempts by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq to reroute oil flows via new pipelines will only partially reduce the risks by 2030:
Moreover, it is not only energy that transits Hormuz but also vital imports of food and medicine. Building full alternative logistics corridors will take decades and tens of billions of dollars, so Iran's strategic leverage will persist for years.
Meanwhile, the White House appears to be trying to rein in AI. The Trump administration invited leading AI developers to the White House to discuss a new voluntary system of governmental oversight. Under the proposal, tech companies could voluntarily provide their advanced AI models to US officials for pre-release review before broad deployment or transfer to partners. It remains unclear whether this initiative will form the basis for real regulation or remain an introductory dialogue between the White House and Big Tech.
Goldman Sachs analysts point out that the US economy has entered a global investment cycle driven by:
Huge capital expenditures on AI infrastructure (where AWS alone expects to grow to $1 trillion in annual revenue), reindustrialisation, defence, power-grid upgrades, and servicing public debt are pushing the cost of money higher worldwide, leaving the Fed more a passenger than a driver.
For the first time in nearly 30 years, the US Treasury joined Japan in a joint intervention to buy yen, sending USD/JPY down from 164 to 158. Beyond supporting an ally, the move has a pragmatic rationale: it should prevent Tokyo from being forced to dump US Treasuries to defend the yen. Otherwise, US yields would rise even further. Experts call this a return to an era of Washington's "currency activism." They warn, however, that if speculators resume attacks on the yen, the entire US debt market would come under direct pressure.
5 August
02:00 / Australia / Ai Group composite industry index for July / prev.: -30.5 / actual: -30.0 / forecast: -27.0 / AUD/USD – up
The composite business-activity index in Australia for June rose by 0.5 points (to -30.0). Fuel-price corrections slightly eased energy cost pressure on businesses. However, the new-orders subindex fell to -41.0, indicating:
High input costs, skilled-labour shortages, and regulatory barriers pushed capacity utilisation down to 72.8%, creating a record gap between costs and output prices. If the July release shows continued recovery, investors will get a signal that the business slump is easing, which would support the Australian dollar.
02:00 / Australia / Ai Group manufacturing industry index for June / prev.: -21.3 / actual: -16.8 / forecast: -14.0 / AUD/USD – up
Ai Group's June manufacturing index rose to -16.8, showing a slowdown in negative dynamics. Conditions across firms remain uneven:
A continued rise in the index would confirm gradual industrial recovery and bolster the AUD.
02:00 / Australia / S&P Global services PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 48.7 / actual: 50.0 / forecast: 53.0 / AUD/USD – up
The preliminary S&P Global Australia services PMI for July is expected at 53.0 — the strongest acceleration since the start of the year. Drivers include:
Sustained demand has allowed service firms to pass costs into output prices and keep a positive outlook. A positive surprise would confirm sector resilience and support the Australian dollar.
02:30 / Japan / Average earnings for June / prev.: 3.6% / actual: 3.2% / forecast: 3.4% / USD/JPY – down Average earnings in Japan for May rose 3.2%, marking the 53rd consecutive month of nominal wage gains. Pay increases were broad-based, led by:
Adjusted for inflation, real incomes rose 1.4% — the longest run of positive growth in four years. If June shows an acceleration, the Bank of Japan would gain a stronger case for normalising monetary conditions, which would be a powerful factor supporting the yen.
03:30 / Japan / S&P Global services PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 50.0 / actual: 52.2 / forecast: 51.9 / USD/JPY – up
The preliminary S&P Global Japan services PMI for July is expected at 51.9, which would keep the sector in expansion for the 16th month. Headwinds include:
At the same time, efforts to offset expensive energy and supply-chain costs have pushed output-price inflation to its fastest pace in 12 years. A downside surprise would pressure the yen.
04:45 / China / Markit services PMI for July / prev.: 54.4 / actual: 54.1 / forecast: 53.7 / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up
China's services PMI (Markit) for June remained high at 54.1, beating expectations. Domestic demand is the main pillar of the sector, while export orders and hiring showed the best dynamics in a long time. Input-cost inflation eased somewhat, though firms continued to pass costs into output prices. A July decline would weigh on oil and the yuan.
10:55 / Germany / S&P Global services PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 48.1 / actual: 48.6 / forecast: 49.6 / EUR/USD – up The preliminary German services PMI for July is expected at 49.6, pointing to a sector close to stabilisation after four months of decline. Improved demand has lifted business sentiment above long-run averages. However, rising fuel and wage costs mean service firms continue to pass through higher prices. A rise in the indicator would signal a turning point and support the euro.11:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global services PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 47.7 / actual: 49.4 / forecast: 51.6 / EUR/USD – up
The eurozone services PMI for July is expected around 51.6, which would mark a return to growth after three months of decline. Non-manufacturing firms have been the main engine of private-sector hiring in the region. With input costs contained, companies slowed output-price increases and business expectations improved. An expansion here would strengthen the euro.
11:00 / United Kingdom / New car sales in July / prev.: 7.1% / actual: 11.4% / forecast: 10.0% / GBP/USD – down
UK new-car registrations rose 11.4% in July to 213.2k — the best July since 2019. Corporate buyers accounted for about 60% of the total, with double-digit growth among private buyers and small businesses. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) jumped to a 30% market share amid higher fuel costs and model refreshes. Confirmation of robust July growth would support the pound.
11:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global services PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 49.3 / actual: 48.8 / forecast: 51.8 / GBP/USD – up
The preliminary UK services PMI for July is expected at 51.8. Drivers of the sector's return to expansion include:
Despite heat, geopolitics and some job losses, the service sector reports falling operating costs and the highest one-year-ahead optimism in a while. A confirmed uptrend would strengthen the pound.
12:00 / Eurozone / Producer price index (PPI) for June / prev.: 5.0% / actual: 5.9% / forecast: 4.6% / EUR/USD – down
Eurozone producer prices accelerated to 5.9% in May — the highest since spring 2023 and well above historical norms. The June report is forecast to show a slowdown in wholesale prices. That could be dovish for the ECB and weigh on EUR.
13:00 / Germany / New car sales in July / prev.: 0.1% / actual: 15.7% / forecast: 5.1% / EUR/USD – down
German new-car sales rose 15.7% in July, driven by a 78.2% surge in EV registrations, which accounted for almost 28% of the market. Demand for diesel and petrol cars continued to fall, though total registrations rose 5.8% year-to-date. A sharp drop in the July release would be negative for the euro.
15:15 / US / ADP employment change for July / prev.: 122k / actual: 98k / forecast: 70k / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down
The US private sector added 98k jobs in June, a modest pace amid:
Gains were concentrated in healthcare, education and transport, while hospitality and mining weakened. Wage growth for job changers rose to 6.6%. A further decline in July would likely push the dollar lower.
16:45 / US / S&P Global services PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 50.7 / actual: 51.2 / forecast: 53.6 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
The preliminary US services PMI for July may rise to 53.6, a year-to-date high supported by:
The Middle East energy shock lifted input-cost inflation to a 14-month peak but did not prevent optimism from hitting a yearly high. Confirmation would support the US dollar.
17:00 / US / ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July / prev.: 54.5 / actual: 54.0 / forecast: 54.5 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
The ISM non-manufacturing index was 54.0 in June, remaining in expansion. A slowdown in order inflows was offset by a record-quick rebound in the employment subindex to 51.2 and a fall in price pressure to four-month lows. A return to 54.5 in July would underscore stable expansion and support the dollar.
17:00 / US / ISM non-manufacturing employment subindex for July / prev.: 47.9 / actual: 51.2 / forecast: 52.0 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
The ISM services employment subindex rose to 51.2 in June from 47.9 in May, returning to expansion for the first time in months. Further improvement in July would be dollar-positive.
17:30 / US / EIA crude oil inventories / prev.: 2.011m bbl / actual: -7.167m bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile
The EIA reported a sharp draw of 7.167m barrels in US commercial crude stocks for the week — well above expectations. The draw coincided with refinery utilisation at 97.2% and a decline in Cushing inventories. Continued inventory declines will push oil prices higher.
02:50 / Japan / Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting minutes / USD/JPY 05:05 / US / Speech by Laila Cook (Board of Governors, Federal Reserve) / USDX
Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled in the coming days; their comments typically drive FX volatility as they may indicate future policy intentions.
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