24.03.202610:04 विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: Fed keeps working amid oil shock and market turmoil

Meanwhile, while the US dollar underwent a major selloff, mainly triggered by President Donald Trump's statements on the Middle East and the war with Iran, which have so far not been confirmed and now surprise no one, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Austan Goolsbee said that, in his view, the central bank of the US may need to either raise interest rates or return to cutting them, depending on how events in the Middle East unfold.

"We could be back to the environment with multiple rate cuts for the year if inflation behaves," Goolsbee said Monday in a CNBC interview. "I could see circumstances where we would need to raise rates if it was going a different way, and inflation was getting out of control."

Goolsbee stressed that the current economic situation and geopolitical tension create uncertainty that directly affects the Federal Reserve's decisions. He noted that any material swings in oil prices caused by the Middle East conflict could lead to an acceleration of inflation, which in turn would require more decisive action from the central bank.

On the other hand, if the conflict leads to a global slowdown in economic growth and weaker demand, the Federal Reserve might have to reassess its rhetoric and begin considering rate cuts to stimulate economic activity. Goolsbee emphasized that the speed and scale of the market's reaction to Middle East events will determine the Fed's next steps.

Recall that Fed officials last week left interest rates unchanged and continued to signal one rate cut this year, despite the uncertainty generated by the war with Iran. After the meeting, investors hurried to price in rate hikes, as concerns about inflation increased in financial markets, although Treasury yields rose on Monday after President Donald Trump said he would postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after last week's decision that rate hikes are not the baseline scenario for the vast majority of officials. He added that it is still too early to judge the magnitude and duration of the Middle East conflict and its impact on inflation and economic growth.

Returning to Goolsbee, who is not a voter on interest rate decisions this year, he also noted in the interview that most economic indicators now point to the Fed being closer to full employment than to its inflation target, so, at the moment, inflation may slightly outrun employment in the central bank's calculations.

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago underscored the impact of higher gasoline prices on consumer inflation expectations, which, he said, so far remain within the central bank's 2% target. The policymaker said that an oil shock could harm economic growth while simultaneously boosting inflation, which would be the worst problem for a central bank.

In the currency market, Goolsbee's words had no market impact, as all attention was again on Trump.

As for the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about taking the 1.1615 level. Only this will allow them to target a test of 1.1638. From there, it is possible to climb to 1.1669, but doing so without support from major players will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the high at 1.1705. In case of a decline in the instrument only to around 1.1588, I expect any serious action from large buyers. If there is no one there, it would be advisable to wait for a new low at 1.1554 or to open long positions from 1.1526.

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3435. Only this will allow them to target 1.3475, above which it will be rather difficult to break through. The most distant target is the area around 1.3515. In the event of a fall, bears will try to seize control of 1.3405. If they succeed, a break of the range will deliver a serious blow to bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the low at 1.3376, with the prospect of reaching 1.3350.