14.09.202613:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – September 14 (U.S. Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 154.19 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for a long position on the dollar. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 154.60.

The market is gradually pricing in the upcoming Fed decision, and, in my view, the regulator will raise its interest rate for the first time in three years on Wednesday, despite Donald Trump's clear dissatisfaction. This backdrop is negative for the yen, as it is clear that the Bank of Japan will not intervene in the foreign exchange market again at this stage. However, given that the Japanese regulator itself is also preparing to raise interest rates, a strong rise in USD/JPY is unlikely.

The lack of U.S. macroeconomic data in the second half of today's session gives the market an opportunity to partially correct the dollar's morning gains. However, I would not expect a sustained recovery in the yen: the latest inflation data have significantly increased the likelihood of a Fed rate hike, meaning that the fundamental advantage remains with the U.S. currency. In my view, USD/JPY may retreat only slightly from its current highs, but this is unlikely to have a significant impact on the upward trend.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 154.66 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 155.02 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.02, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from the level. A rise in the pair today is possible, but the upward potential is relatively limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 154.41 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 154.66 and 155.02 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 154.41 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 154.02, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 154.66 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 154.41 and 154.02 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.