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Global equity markets remain on edge. Following declines in the United States, Asian exchanges also closed lower. The main trigger was oil, which traded up near $102 per barrel during the session, fueling investor fears of rising inflation. Against this backdrop, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury remained close to recent highs around 4.85%.
The most telling development was a near-fiasco for the US Treasury: the plan to buy $6 billion of long-dated Treasuries failed to calm the market and instead disappointed investors. Where earlier interventions produced short-lived relief, this tool now appears to be running out of effectiveness. The episode bolsters skeptics' arguments that one-off technical fixes cannot solve systemic fiscal issues and that the Treasury's toolkit is rapidly dwindling. Follow the link for more details.
The US government bond market appears to have tested the Treasury's mettle: the $6 billion buyback did not soothe investors and instead helped push 10-year yields to their highest levels since 2023. The psychological 5% threshold now looms. A break above it could create material problems for the economy. Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and attacks on energy infrastructure are compounding the stress, driving Brent above $101/bbl.
Despite this macro storm, the S&P 500 has shown surprising resilience. The explanation is artificial intelligence. Relentless demand for AI technologies and massive investment in the sector are acting as a protective shield for tech giants. As long as Wall Street believes in an ongoing funding cycle for neural network deployments, rising borrowing costs and geopolitical risks are taking a back seat, keeping equities from collapsing. Follow the link for more details.
The US dollar continues to weaken amid a firmer yen, Fed policy uncertainty, and the Treasury's buyback program. Markets are now holding their breath for fresh inflation prints that should clarify the outlook and set the direction for the coming weeks. The technical picture remains negative. The index is in a steady downtrend, trading below all major moving averages, though indicators are approaching oversold territory, leaving room for a short-term defensive bounce.
A decisive break above the resistance level of 99.20, especially if accompanied by hawkish price data, would open the door for bulls toward the psychological 100.00 level. Conversely, a drop below the support level of 98.68 would give bears the green light to target 97.80 and 97.60, while a break of the 96.20 zone would cement a full-blown bear market in the dollar. Follow the link for more details.
USD/JPY is trading near seven-month lows, slightly above 153.50, as the yen gains on expectations of aggressive action from the Bank of Japan. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25-bp hike at the upcoming September meeting and a likely follow-on move in December. The push is supported not only by hawkish voices within the Bank of Japan but also by solid wage growth and favorable macro releases.
Still, the dollar is showing resilience and has started a cautious recovery. Investors are braced for US inflation prints (PPI and CPI), which will be key to shaping Fed policy. Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, including tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, is adding upward pressure to energy prices, stoking inflation fears and providing support to the dollar, preventing USD/JPY from extending its decline. Follow the link for more details.
USD/CAD is holding just above 1.3800 as traders have taken a wait-and-see position ahead of key US inflation releases. This week's PPI and CPI readings will be the market's main guideposts. They will determine how aggressively the Fed might tighten monetary policy at its September meeting. Investors are currently pricing in a high probability of further tightening, and elevated US Treasury yields are providing clear support to the dollar.
Geopolitics adds another layer. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil to three-month highs. That dynamic creates a tug-of-war for USD/CAD: on one hand, global risk and safe-haven flows favor the dollar; on the other hand, higher oil prices tend to bolster the Canadian dollar. The result is choppy trading and limited upside for USD/CAD until the inflation prints provide a clearer directional signal. Follow the link for more details.
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