06.08.202612:39 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CAD: analysis and outlook. Canadian dollar retains advantage versus US dollar

The USD/CAD pair is trading lower on Thursday, with bears targeting a break of the psychological 1.4000 level.

Oil prices have recovered slightly after hitting a more-than-three-week low yesterday, following missile attacks by Houthi forces from Yemen — backed by Iran — on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. These events raise concerns about possible supply disruptions along this key route, which in turn supports the Canadian dollar, a commodity-dependent currency. However, hopes for a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran are keeping the US dollar on the defensive, adding pressure to USD/CAD.

Esmail Bagai, a spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry, said Iran and Oman are close to finalizing work on a proposed framework for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This has generated optimism about a possible diplomatic resolution to the five-month US–Iran dispute, which, together with softer forecasts for Federal Reserve rate hikes, does not support demand for the US dollar. Nevertheless, traders appear reluctant to open aggressive positions ahead of upcoming key monthly employment reports.

The widely watched US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and Canada's employment data released on Friday are expected to have a significant impact on USD/CAD. Also keep an eye on developments in the Middle East. Given the mixed fundamental backdrop, it makes sense to wait for a continuation of the sell-off before opening positions to play another leg down from the instrument's June highs.

From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, USD/CAD retains a short-term bearish bias and is trading below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.4070. Failure to clear that level points to continued selling, and the currency pair is consolidating near the lower band of its recent range. A daily close above the SMA would open the door to a deeper corrective bounce, while sustained trading below it would raise the risk of further declines. Oscillators are negative, leaving the bears in control.