01.07.202610:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What lies behind Strategy's plan to sell BTC worth $1.25bn

Yesterday, online reports said that Strategy was preparing to sell up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin, sparking panic and a spike in market volatility. But what exactly lies behind those headlines, and is it as bad as it sounds? Let's take a closer look.

Indeed, on June 29, Strategy filed an 8?K with the Securities and Exchange Commission disclosing a new five?component "Digital Credit Capital Framework." The filing does give the company the authority to sell up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin, but it is important to understand the wording precisely: this is an authorization, not a mandatory sale — a power the board may use under specified conditions. The company's Bitcoin position itself has not changed by a single coin: as of June 28 the balance still shows the same 847,363 BTC as a week earlier.

The monetization program has tightly defined objectives, and a "just because" sale is not part of it. The board authorized the ability to raise up to $1.25 billion in additional dollars to replenish the cash reserve; to fund dividends on preferred shares and interest expenses when management deems that preferable to issuing common stock; and to finance buyback programs.

Any sale outside those goals or above the limit would require separate board approval. In essence, this is a defensive — not offensive — tool: an insurance net in case raising capital via equity becomes unattractive, not a plan for systematically winding down reserves.

The potential Bitcoin sale, however, is only one of five elements. Strategy simultaneously raised dividends on STRC preferred shares to 12% per annum effective July 1, formalized a dollar reserve policy at $2.55 billion (already covering about 17.4 months of dividend payments at the newly set minimum of 12 months), and launched two buyback programs of $1 billion each — one for preferreds and one for common MSTR shares. Note that neither buyback program obligates the company to make actual purchases. The authorized $1.25 billion cap equals less than 2.5% of the company's total position of 847,363 Bitcoin, so even full use of the limit would represent a targeted adjustment rather than a dismantling of the strategy.

Nevertheless, the mere presence of such an instrument in the toolkit of a company that for years publicly rejected the possibility of selling is a meaningful signal for a market that viewed Strategy as one of the largest sources of institutional Bitcoin demand.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are now targeting a return to $60,600, which opens a straight path to $62,600 and then to $64,000; a break above that would signal attempts to re?establish the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers at $58,500. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $56,100. The farthest target would be around $53,600.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,617 opens a direct path to $1,670. The farther target is the high near $1,725; a break above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On a decline, I expect buyers at $1,555. A move back below that area could quickly send ETH down toward $1,515. The farthest target would be around $1,433.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.