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West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for US crude, is attempting to slow its decline at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
At the same time, prices remain within reach of the March lows reached last week, driven by new signs of progress in US–Iran peace talks. Mediators — Qatar and Pakistan — said on Monday that the first round of discussions between Washington and Tehran, aimed at producing a comprehensive agreement to resolve the protracted conflict, ended with encouraging results. Both sides agreed on a plan intended to lead to a final deal within the next 60 days, according to a joint statement by the two mediators after meetings in Switzerland.
Moves needed to resolve the situation have helped allay fears of a diplomatic breakdown, especially after Iran briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz again on Saturday following threats from US President Donald Trump of renewed military action against Iran. Notably, the US Treasury announced a temporary easing of sanctions on Iranian oil exports — a move that has also contributed to the fall in oil prices.
Traders remain skeptical about the durability of the truce given major disagreements over strategic transit, Iran's nuclear program and frozen assets. That keeps a geopolitical risk premium in place, which in turn helps oil hold the important level around the 200-day SMA near $72.80, fostering caution among market participants who expect further declines.
Technically, a breakdown below the 200-day SMA would leave prices vulnerable to additional losses. If prices hold above it, the next resistance to a rally is the round level of $78.00, near the 90?day exponential moving average (EMA). Momentum oscillators are negative, although the relative strength index (RSI) is approaching the oversold zone, which suggests a likelihood of a corrective bounce or consolidation.
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