Following an intense 18-hour diplomatic marathon in Switzerland, representatives of Washington and Tehran, with active facilitation from intermediaries from Qatar and Pakistan, recorded encouraging progress. The parties approved the creation of a High-Level Committee for political oversight and formed specialized working groups on the nuclear dossier, the sanctions regime and dispute-settlement mechanisms, laying the groundwork for reaching a final agreement within the next 60 days.
To prevent dangerous incidents and ensure the safe transit of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a 24/7 emergency hotline is being deployed. In addition, the US, Iran and Lebanon are launching a joint coordination center to tightly monitor the ceasefire. Technical missions will remain in Europe until the end of the week. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stressed that Tehran has already won substantial concessions, including:
The behind-the-scenes diplomatic process unfolded against the backdrop of nonstop aggressive attacks by Donald Trump on Truth Social and on Fox News, which nearly derailed the consultations due to protests by the Iranian delegation, who viewed the threats as a direct violation of the memorandum. Nevertheless, pragmatic Tehran continued the dialogue, since current conditions are ideal for it.
The Islamic Republic has fully recovered from the spring blows and can now afford a prolonged pause that inflicts colossal reputational and financial damage on the United States. Prolonging the negotiations steadily erodes global American dominance and undermines Washington's traditional alliances. Iran has no objective reason to accelerate events or make real concessions on the nuclear issue.
On the contrary, using the negotiation track as a smokescreen, Tehran intends to actively modernize its missile, drone and defense programs, drawing lessons from the recent war. Rising skepticism is shared by professional market participants. Traders assess the probability of full restoration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of June at only eight percent, by mid-July at 28%, and by the end of next month at 48%.
At the same time, closing the strait remains for Tehran a very quick and very effective lever of pressure. Transit permissions for commercial shipping are issued by the naval units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The deputy foreign minister of the Islamic Republic announced that in exactly two months Tehran intends to approve its own autonomous regulations for control of the Strait of Hormuz and present new special regional initiatives to neighboring states.
Nevertheless, experts point to a clear duality of the situation, because despite official threats from Iran's military, commercial freight has not been completely halted, and dozens of civilian vessels carrying millions of barrels of hydrocarbons continue to transit the contested waters daily. Donald Trump, meanwhile, called Iran a doomed party on Truth Social and described the meeting as a forced move by Tehran, promising to block any financial transfers to the Islamic Republic.
Arab diplomats, for their part, are trying to overcome the acute crisis of trust and to enshrine all disputed points of the recent memorandum within a single, long-term, comprehensive agreement. To move the dialogue into a strictly practical plane, the meeting participants promptly formed specialized technical groups, tasked with conducting a page-by-page review of the final text of the treaty and deploying an effective monitoring system for the implementation of mutual concessions.
A comparison of the geopolitical realities of late winter and early summer reveals a tectonic shift in the balance of power. As recently as February 27, transit through the Strait of Hormuz remained stable, and Iran itself was under the yoke of total international sanctions, with frozen assets and a severe technology deficit. Tehran influenced regional processes only sporadically and exclusively through loyal proxy groups, without the ability to shape global trends.
But by June 19, the situation had changed beyond recognition. Today the Islamic Republic has effectively established iron control over the Strait of Hormuz, gripping this artery so firmly that neither economic pressure nor Western military threats have had an effect. The climax of this confrontation was Washington's forced diplomatic move, which many analysts rightly call an act of capitulation to a new reality.
Tehran has definitively consolidated its status as the dominant regional power, able to dictate terms and collect a transit toll for ships' passage, forcing the rest of the world to reckon with its will. Over the past 3.5 months, leading business publications worldwide have had to adapt to Iran's information rhythm, which has turned the country into a global player.
Decisions by this country now directly affect:
Moreover, Tehran's actions have become a key factor in the stability of the American financial system. The threat of cascading inflation and a deep crisis in the US government debt market has created capital outflow risks capable of destabilizing Wall Street even more than the shocks of 2022. The domestic political sphere in the United States has also been held hostage by the Middle East crisis, since economic overheating would guarantee a Republican defeat in the November 2026 Congressional elections, which would strike directly at Donald Trump's position.
As a result of this large-scale transformation, Iran gained enormous diplomatic bargaining chips — demands to lift restrictions, unfreeze sovereign accounts and receive reparations from the White House — becoming a full-fledged and dominant participant in the negotiation process. And although skeptics reasonably doubt that the Americans will actually deliver on these points in the long term, the very fact that Tehran is now dictating terms instead of facing last winter's question of political isolation speaks volumes.
The United States demonstrated the utter impotence of its military lever and its inability to impose its will in the region. Pentagon air strikes destroyed local infrastructure but failed to cool the opponent's ardor. The swift shift from point A to point B brought the Islamic Republic huge advantages, elevated its agency to a global level and led to the public humiliation of the U.S. in the most degrading format, while Tehran's nuclear program remains unbound by any real guarantees.
The vice chairman of financial giant Goldman Sachs and former Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan issued a stern warning to the markets. In his view, if the summer months do not bring the long-awaited cooling of inflation, the Federal Reserve will have to take a preemptive rate hike as early as its September meeting. Kaplan stressed that monetary moves by the U.S. regulator are almost never one-offs — they usually come in a series of two to three consecutive steps.
Tough statements by the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh have already triggered a mass sell-off of short-term Treasuries. Swap traders urgently revised their expectations: they are now pricing in a quarter-point rise in borrowing costs by October 2026, whereas a week ago they had pushed that scenario back to spring 2027. Against this backdrop, the yield on the most rate-sensitive two-year Treasuries jumped 17 basis points on Wednesday — the largest rise since March — and settled at 4.17%.
There remains a split on Wall Street. Citigroup analysts are among the few remaining doves — still expecting a rate cut, although they moved their forecast from September to October because of localized signs of labor market cooling. Kaplan himself urges not to overinterpret the Fed's new dot plots, since they have not yet fully incorporated the positive effect of the reopening of sea routes after the US–Iran rapprochement.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs analysts decided to sharply lower their gold price target by $500, linking the move to the effective cancellation of Fed plans to ease policy (cut rates) this year. But this skepticism from the investment house stands in stark contrast to the mood among the world's largest monetary authorities. According to a new large-scale survey by the World Gold Council (WGC) covering 74 regulators, central banks are showing unprecedented, historic optimism toward the metal.
As many as 45% of surveyed monetary authorities officially confirmed their intention to increase physical gold holdings in their vaults over the next 12 months, an all-time record. Moreover, an overwhelming majority — 89% of respondents — expect a global rise in aggregate world gold reserves, clearly signaling a tactic of aggressive buying on any local price dips.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of an inevitable tectonic shift in energy markets. If the fragile truce in the Middle East evolves into a durable peace, global supply risks critically exceeding real demand. The end of the prolonged crisis could be marked by a destructive price shock that suppresses importers' economic activity before tanker flows from the Persian Gulf are fully restored.
In its latest report, the agency sharply downgraded its global consumption outlook for the current year, forecasting a fall in demand of 1.1 million barrels per day instead of the previous estimate of 420 thousand barrels per day. However, next year the reverse process is expected to begin:
Early analyst calculations for 2027 openly point to a massive surplus, which will allow OECD countries to begin hurriedly replenishing depleted strategic stocks.
Despite the obvious diplomatic triumph, IEA experts urge investors to take off their rose-tinted glasses, since instant logistics normalization is impossible. De-mining key sea corridors, resolving insurance issues for ships, reallocating the tanker fleet and restoring delivery schedules will take many months — the war effectively paralyzed the artery that once carried about 20% of global energy.
The only salvation for the global economy during this period has been the accelerated drawdown of accumulated reserves: commercial stocks fell by 143 million barrels in May alone, and OECD government storage levels dropped to lows not seen since December 1990. The safety cushion was being depleted at an average pace of 3.8 million barrels per day, and these interventions, together with reduced Chinese imports and rising U.S. output, kept the world from a global energy collapse.
The military conflict produced a radical geopolitical fracture within the region, which has now split into two opposing camps. On one pole stands an alliance of Israel and the United Arab Emirates, while on the other sits a powerful bloc of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. The most painful blow to the region's former economic unity was the UAE's official exit from OPEC. Abu Dhabi's move threatens the market with:
This deals a direct and extremely painful blow to Saudi Arabia's ambitious budget plans and fiscal stability.
Global political elites around the world have come to an alarmingly troubling conclusion for the White House: the United States in its current form can no longer be regarded as a predictable and reliable partner capable of guaranteeing security. In these realities, accelerated diversification and a systematic distancing from Washington-led military-political alliances have ceased to be a long-term geopolitical luxury and become an essential survival strategy for most sovereign states.
June 22, 04:15 / China / People's Bank of China decision on the 1?year rate / prev.: 3.0% / actual: 3.0% / forecast: 3.0% / Brent – volatile, USD/CNY – volatile
At its previous meeting, the People's Bank of China kept the 1?year LPR at a historic low of 3.0% for the twelfth month in a row, exercising caution amid the Middle East conflict and related inflation risks. The regulator is maintaining a moderately easy stance in the face of weak key economic indicators, such as slowing industrial production and retail sales falling to multi?year lows. Analysts expect the rate to remain at 3.0% in June. With the rate itself unchanged, market reaction to the regulator's accompanying commentary is likely to cause high volatility in Brent crude and the yuan.
June 22, 15:30 / Canada / Consumer inflation (May) / prev.: 2.4% / actual: 2.8% / forecast: 2.9% / USD/CAD – down
Consumer inflation in Canada accelerated to a two?year high of 2.8% in April due to a spike in energy and transport prices caused by supply disruptions from the Middle East. At the same time, core inflation measures watched by the Bank of Canada fell to five?year lows, indicating limited spillover of the fuel shock to other sectors. The May report is forecast to show inflation rising to 2.9%; confirmation would signal persistent upward price pressure and strengthen the Canadian dollar.
June 22, 17:00 / Eurozone / Consumer confidence (June, preliminary) / prev.: -20.6 pts / actual: -19.0 pts / forecast: -18.0 pts / EUR/USD – up
Eurozone consumer confidence recovered to -19.0 pts in May, rising from a three?year low. The indicator remains negative due to inflation risks, but households have become less pessimistic about their personal finances and major purchases ahead. The preliminary June forecast anticipates a further rise to -18.0 pts; if realized, this would confirm improving domestic sentiment and support the euro.
June 23, 02:00 / Australia / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (June, preliminary) / prev.: 51.3 pts / actual: 50.7 pts / forecast: 50.0 pts / AUD/USD – down
Australia's S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 50.7 pts in May. A fourth consecutive monthly drop in output and a sharp decline in new orders were only partially offset by modest job growth and companies' optimism about future deliveries. The preliminary June report is expected to show the index slipping to the barely?expansionary 50.0 mark; confirmation would signal stagnation in industry and weaken the Australian dollar.
June 23, 03:30 / Japan / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (June, preliminary) / prev.: 55.1 pts / actual: 54.5 pts / forecast: 53.6 pts / USD/JPY – up
Japan's manufacturing PMI was 54.5 pts in May, maintaining a solid expansion trajectory. Activity was supported by inventory building amid the Middle East crisis and a five?year high in export orders, accompanied by sharp acceleration in input and output prices. The preliminary June reading is forecast to fall to 53.6 pts; realization of this forecast would point to a moderate slowdown in industrial growth and weaken the yen.
June 23, 07:00 / Eurozone / Passenger car registrations (May) / prev.: 12.5% / actual: 5.1% / forecast: 2.8% / EUR/USD – down
New passenger car registrations in the EU rose 5.1% year?on?year in April. The regional car market continues to be supported by strong demand for electric vehicles thanks to tax incentives and subsidies in Germany, Italy and Spain. The May report is forecast to show the growth rate slowing to 2.8%; confirmation would indicate cooling consumer activity and weigh on the euro.
June 23, 10:30 / Germany / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (June, preliminary) / prev.: 51.4 pts / actual: 50.1 pts / forecast: 49.0 pts / EUR/USD – down
Germany's manufacturing PMI adjusted to 50.1 pts in May, a four?month low. In the context of the Middle East conflict, German manufacturers faced falling new orders and record cost pressures, forcing them to slow production and increase layoffs. The preliminary June forecast points to a drop into contraction at 49.0 pts; if confirmed, this would confirm recessionary risks and weaken the euro.
June 23, 11:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global composite PMI (June, preliminary) / prev.: 52.2 pts / actual: 48.5 pts / forecast: 48.0 pts / EUR/USD – down
The eurozone composite PMI was 48.5 pts in May, confirming a private?sector downturn. The decline was driven by a services?sector crisis, while manufacturing remained in expansion. The main pressures came from falling export orders and strong inflationary cost pressures on input prices. The preliminary June forecast expects a further decline to 48.0 pts; if realized, this would weaken the euro.
June 23, 11:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (June, preliminary) / prev.: 53.7 pts / actual: 49.3 pts / forecast: 51.9 pts / GBP/USD – up
The UK manufacturing PMI rose to 53.9 pts in May, supported by a strong inflow of domestic and export orders. Expansion in the production of investment goods supported the sector despite logistic delays and input and energy cost increases to four?year highs. The June consensus forecast is for a moderate decline to 51.9 pts; confirmation would indicate the sector remains in stable growth and support the pound.
June 23, 11:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (June, preliminary) / prev.: 53.7 pts / actual: 49.3 pts / forecast: 51.9 pts / GBP/USD – up
The UK manufacturing PMI rose to 53.9 pts in May, supported by a strong inflow of domestic and export orders. Expansion in the production of investment goods supported the sector despite logistic delays and input and energy cost increases to four?year highs. The June consensus forecast is for a moderate decline to 51.9 pts; confirmation would indicate the sector remains in stable growth and support the pound.
June 23, 13:00 / United Kingdom / CBI total orders balance (June, preliminary) / prev.: -38 pts / actual: -41 pts / forecast: -35 pts / GBP/USD – up
The CBI total orders balance for the UK fell to -41 pts in May, the lowest since autumn 2020. The Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices and caused new logistical disruptions, leading to output declines in 13 of 17 manufacturing sub?sectors, including engineering and food production. Domestic demand remains weak, but companies' expectations for selling prices rose to multi?year highs. The preliminary June forecast expects the balance to recover to -35 pts; confirmation would signal demand pick?up and strengthen the pound.
June 23, 15:00 / US / ADP weekly private sector job growth (4?week average) / prev.: 29.0k / actual: 25.5k / forecast: – / USDX (6?currency USD index) – volatile
The 4?week average weekly private?sector job gain from ADP slowed to 25.5k, the fourth consecutive weekly decline, signaling gradual cooling in the labor market ahead of the summer season. Nonetheless, the broader monthly employment report for May earlier showed the strongest expansion in company payrolls since the start of last year. With no official consensus forecast for the current week, the release is likely to cause local volatility in the dollar.
June 23, 16:45 / US / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (June, preliminary) / prev.: 54.5 pts / actual: 55.1 pts / forecast: 54.1 pts / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
The S&P Global US manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 pts in May, the strongest gain in recent years. The positive impulse was supported by output expansion and active inventory accumulation to hedge logistics risks from the Middle East. Export orders have fallen for the 11th month in a row due to geopolitics, and companies' costs rose at the fastest pace in four years, weakening overall business confidence. The preliminary June forecast expects a decline to 54.1 pts; confirmation would signal a slowing in industrial growth and weaken the dollar.
June 23, 17:00 / US / Richmond Fed manufacturing index (June, preliminary) / prev.: 3 pts / actual: 13 pts / forecast: 9 pts / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index jumped to 13 pts in May, the highest since 2021. The substantial rise was driven by a sharp increase in the new orders subindex and recovery in shipments. Regional manufacturers also reported a welcome slowdown in input price growth, allowing them to reduce the pace of increases in their own selling prices. The preliminary June forecast expects the index to fall to 9 pts; realization would signal moderate cooling in the sector and weaken the dollar.
June 23, 23:30 / USA / API weekly crude oil stocks / prev.: -9.119 mln bbl / actual: -8.33 mln bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile
US commercial crude stocks fell by 8.33 million barrels in the API weekly report, continuing the drawn?out downtrend in inventories. Declines were also recorded in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and at the Cushing distribution hub. US average daily crude production rose to 13.80 million bpd, while a local rise in gasoline stocks offset a decline in distillate inventories. With no forecast figures in the calendar, investor reaction to the actual supply?demand changes is expected to create high volatility in Brent crude.
June 24, 04:30 / Australia / Consumer inflation (May) / prev.: 4.6% / actual: 4.2% / forecast: 4.3% / AUD/USD – up
Annual inflation in Australia slowed to 4.2% in April thanks to lower fuel excise and a correction in food prices. Still, core indicators hit multi?month highs, underscoring persistent price pressures. Analysts forecast inflation at 4.3% for May; if realized, this would indicate a return to rising inflation and strengthen the Australian dollar.
June 24, 11:00 / Germany / Ifo business climate index (June, preliminary) / prev.: 84.5 pts / actual: 84.9 pts / forecast: 85.6 pts / EUR/USD – up
The German Ifo business climate index rose to 84.9 pts in May amid a local recovery in services and trade. The EU's largest economy shows signs of stabilization, although a construction downturn and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on business sentiment. The preliminary June release is expected to show the index rising to 85.6 pts; confirmation would signal a restoration of business confidence and support the euro.
June 24, 15:30 / Canada / Manufacturing sales (May, m/m, prelim.) / prev.: 3.0% / actual: 4.2% / forecast: -1.3% / USD/CAD – up
Canada's manufacturing sales jumped 4.2% in April, driven by a sharp increase in refining activity, after planned plant turnarounds were completed. The positive trend affected most key industries, fully offsetting a local decline in the metals sector. The preliminary May report is forecast to show a 1.3% decline; confirmation would signal cooling industrial demand and weaken the Canadian dollar.
June 24, 15:30 / US / Building permits (May) / prev.: -11.4% / actual: 4.4% / forecast: -0.7% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
Building permits in the US are preliminarily estimated to have fallen 0.7% m/m to 1.413 million. Current results were worse than market expectations, although long?term sector averages remain stable. If the expected 0.7% decline for May is confirmed, it would indicate cooling in the housing market and weigh on the US dollar.
June 24, 17:00 / US / New single?family home sales (May) / prev.: 3.4% / actual: -6.2% / forecast: 2.9% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
New single?family home sales in the US fell 6.2% in April to an annualized 622,000, marking a three?month low. Weak data illustrate the negative impact of high borrowing costs on consumer demand. The May forecast calls for a partial recovery of 2.9%; realization would restore investor optimism and strengthen the US dollar.
June 24, 17:30 / US / Crude oil stocks (EIA) / prev.: -7.228 mln bbl / actual: -8.262 mln bbl / forecast: -4.715 mln bbl / Brent – down
US commercial crude inventories fell by 8.262 million barrels per the EIA, the largest weekly decline since February, driven by higher refinery throughput and lower imports. Drawdowns were also recorded in Cushing and gasoline stocks, confirming strong domestic market activity despite a moderate rise in distillate volumes. The forecasted draw of 4.715 million barrels, against this strong print, will put downward pressure on Brent crude.
June 22, 11:00, 15:30, 18:15 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD
June 22, 14:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Joachim Nagel (ECB Governing Council) / EUR/USD
June 22, 16:00 / US / Speech by Christopher Waller (Fed Board) / USDX
June 23, 11:55 / United Kingdom / Speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden / GBP/USD
June 23, 16:15 / United Kingdom / Speech by Martin Taylor (BoE Financial Policy Committee) / GBP/USD
June 23, 16:25 / Canada / Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem / USD/CAD
June 23, 20:30 / United Kingdom / Speech by Swati Dhingra (BoE Monetary Policy Committee) / GBP/USD
June 24, 02:50 / Japan / Brief summary of Bank of Japan opinions / policy rate – 1.0% / USD/JPY
June 24, 09:30 / Australia / Speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser / AUD/USD
June 24, 12:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Joachim Nagel (ECB Governing Council) / EUR/USD
June 24, 14:15 / United Kingdom / Speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden / GBP/USD
June 24, 14:15 / Canada / Speech by Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers / USD/CAD
June 24, 18:00 / United Kingdom / Speech by Swati Dhingra (BoE Monetary Policy Committee) / GBP/USD
June 24, 19:30 / United Kingdom / Speech by Huw Pill (BoE Monetary Policy Committee) / GBP/USD
Policymakers of major central banks are also scheduled to speak over these days. Their comments typically trigger volatility in FX markets, as they can indicate the regulators' future policy intentions.
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