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Given that Bitcoin has fallen several times from the $75,000–$76,000 area, it is possible the situation will repeat. Clearly, as the price approaches that level, there are far fewer buyers and more holders willing to take profits.
According to CryptoQuant data, there has been a significant inflow of bitcoins to exchanges, which may signal holders' readiness to realize short-term gains. This spike in activity could indicate an intention to sell part of their holdings in response to the recent price rise. The market is currently in a state of uncertainty as participants assess the outlook.
Prominent crypto specialist Arthur Hayes also believes that a substantial Bitcoin rally is unlikely in the near term. In his view, the key factor for a new wave of buying would be an aggressive cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Only the start of large-scale liquidity injections into the financial system, Hayes argues, would justify speaking of a significant upward move in BTC. Under the current monetary policy, Bitcoin will likely remain under pressure or display limited volatility.
Traders analyzing ETF flows, market sentiment and macroeconomic factors face difficulties because the data are highly mixed and contradictory. However, only a change in the Fed's rhetoric or actions can materially shift the balance toward renewed crypto buying strong enough to form a sustainable uptrend.
Trading recommendations
Bitcoin
Buyers are currently targeting a return to $75,000, which would open a direct path to $76,500 and then $78,400. The farther target is the high near $80,100; a break above that would signal attempts to return to a bull market. On a pullback, I expect buyers to step in at $73,100. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $71,400, with a further target around $69,800.
Ethereum
A clear close above $2,410 would open a direct path to $2,499. The farther target is the high near $2,585; a break above that would strengthen bullish sentiment and revive buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers to step in at $2,308. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,244, with a further target around $2,162.
What's on the chart
Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.
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