16.04.202611:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD Forecast: Risks in the Strait of Hormuz Support the US Dollar, Limiting the Growth of Gold

Gold (XAU/USD) is giving back part of its modest intraday gains but maintains a positive bias, holding above the $4,800 level.

Despite hopes for diplomatic progress from Tehran, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to support demand for the US dollar, which remains a key factor limiting further upside in the precious metal. Following the conclusion of talks in Islamabad last Saturday, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports has come fully into force. In response, the head of Iran's Joint Military Command stated that the country is prepared to halt trade activity in the Persian Gulf region if Washington does not lift the restrictions. Additionally, Tehran demanded a halt to Israeli strikes on Lebanon as a precondition for continuing negotiations with the United States. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled that he does not intend to declare a ceasefire and has instructed the Israel Defense Forces to tighten control over the security zone. These developments are maintaining elevated geopolitical tensions, reinforcing the US dollar's safe-haven status while simultaneously limiting the upside potential of gold prices.

At the same time, expectations of a diplomatic resolution are having a moderately positive impact on market sentiment, supporting risk appetite and keeping oil prices near the three-week low recorded on Tuesday.

US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that the war with Iran could end in the near future, and the White House reported progress toward a ceasefire agreement. Media reports also indicate a high likelihood of a second round of peace talks between Washington and Tehran in the coming days. This dynamic, along with easing concerns about inflationary pressure driven by energy price spikes, is prompting a reassessment of hawkish expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, potential policy easing by the US central bank is still projected toward the end of 2026. Meanwhile, moderate investor optimism is preventing dollar bulls from opening aggressive positions and is helping gold remain near the four-week highs reached the previous day.

Overall, current fundamental factors remain mixed, suggesting caution before opening positions targeting a significant decline in XAU/USD.

From a technical perspective, oscillators are hovering near the neutral line, confirming market uncertainty and a balance between bulls and bears.