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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed. There is still no talk of canceling the uptrend (lower chart), which began in January last year, but the current wave structure now looks ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a smaller time frame (upper chart) and focusing on the simplest, smaller wave structures to make short-term forecasts, which is sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be very complex, implying multiple scenarios. The easiest approach is to trade standard "five-three" structures.
In the chart above, I can identify a classic five-wave impulse structure with an extended third wave. If this interpretation is correct, then this wave structure is complete, and we should expect a corrective sequence of at least three waves. Therefore, in the near term, a rise in the instrument can be expected, but within a corrective phase relative to the last portion of the trend. Currently, the latest wave structures do not fit well into the higher timeframe, but the situation should clarify over time. In the near term, EUR/USD could recover toward 1.1666 and 1.1745.
U.S. data did not disappoint but also did not attract much attention. EUR/USD rose another 70 basis points on Wednesday, gaining about 160 points over two days in total. As can be expected, the main driver of the recent movements was geopolitical developments. This week, news has begun to indicate a possible truce in the Middle East more clearly. Now it is not only the grand statements from Donald Trump but also remarks from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressing a "willingness" to end the conflict, provided guarantees are given. While each side still insists on its own terms for a truce, markets are responding positively. Oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days, and the U.S. dollar is weakening.
Amid geopolitical developments, the market has largely ignored economic reports. Four statements today were significant enough for traders to note: morning unemployment in the Eurozone, and in the U.S.—retail sales, the ADP employment report, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Unemployment in Europe rose contrary to forecasts, U.S. retail sales increased contrary to forecasts, ADP showed more new jobs than expected, and ISM exceeded predictions. Thus, all four of Wednesday's most important reports supported sellers. U.S. data exceeded expectations, European data fell short. Yet the EUR/USD pair continued to rise all day. Geopolitics once again outweighed economics, allowing my wave plan to continue. The instrument continues to form a corrective wave, but under certain geopolitical circumstances, it could begin a new upward segment of the trend.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within the uptrend (lower chart) and has completed a short-term downward wave sequence. Since the five-wave impulse structure is complete, readers can expect a rise over the next week or two, with targets near 1.1666 and 1.1745, corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels. Further movements will depend entirely on events in the Middle East.
On a smaller timeframe, the full upward segment of the trend is visible. The wave structure is non-standard, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the higher-level Wave 2 is smaller than the internal Wave 2 of Wave 3. However, such variations are common. I remind traders that it is better to focus on clear, understandable structures rather than trying to account for every single wave. The trend could reverse soon.
Key Principles of My Analysis:
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