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Markets strongly want to believe that Trump's intention to bring peace to the Middle East will materialize. However, how realistic is this? And is it merely a tactic designed to halt the increase in oil prices and push them lower?
Trump has made a proposal to the Iranian side consisting of 15 points, which implies only a ceasefire rather than a long-term peace agreement. Investors are currently reacting only to this news and are not taking into account the position of the opposing Iranian side, which rejects this plan.
Against this background, the rise in oil prices has paused, but prices still remain high. It appears that market participants strongly doubt Trump's sincerity. Many believe that what is happening resembles a tactic. It is an attempt to force Iran to change its course in the war—essentially an attempt to mislead it, which, incidentally, is seen as part of the political tradition of the United States and its presidents.
On Friday, the five-day moratorium previously announced by Trump will end. Military transport vessels with landing forces are expected to arrive for a ground operation, and at that point, everything may start again.
Under such a scenario, one should expect a renewed increase in crude oil prices and, as a result, strengthening of the U.S. dollar in the Forex market. As the conflict drags on, the likelihood of a noticeable increase in inflation in the United States grows. Consequently, the Federal Reserve may not only keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period but could even raise them, for example, by 0.25%.
In my view, this scenario is the most realistic, given the complex domestic political situation in the United States, which is developing unfavorably for Trump personally and for the Republican Party. A firm stance by Iran could force Washington to launch a ground operation in an attempt to quickly change the situation. However, whether this will succeed remains an open question.
Daily outlook:
#CL (Crude Oil)The price of U.S. crude oil remains within the range of 84.00–101.00 per barrel. An escalation of the Middle East conflict could trigger another wave of growth, potentially pushing prices toward 101.00. A possible buying level is 88.70.
EUR/USDThe pair is consolidating above the 1.1565 level. An escalation of the crisis will likely support demand for the dollar again, and on that wave the pair may fall toward 1.1415. A possible selling level is 1.1557.
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