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The EUR/USD pair has once again reversed in favor of the euro and moved upward. Over the past few days, the pair has changed direction several times and has been ignoring chart patterns. This may not necessarily be a bad thing. Today, Donald Trump announced a possible near-term end to the war in the Middle East, which immediately led to a retreat by sellers. It did not matter that half an hour later Iran stated that no negotiations with the U.S. were taking place and that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed. Markets reacted to Trump's statement, and the dollar tends to weaken on de-escalation signals. The recent growth of the U.S. dollar over the past 4–5 weeks has been driven by geopolitical factors. That is why I have repeatedly said that I do not believe the bullish trend has fully ended, despite the break of important structural lows.
At this point, it appears that imbalance 12 may be invalidated, and the invalidation of a bearish pattern is an early sign of a possible trend change. There is still imbalance 11, also bearish, which price may react to. The Middle East conflict is also ongoing. However, Monday's trading showed that buyers are capable of regaining control and restoring the trend.
I will only believe in a continued decline if geopolitical factors continue to strongly support sellers. As mentioned earlier, this would require the situation in the Middle East not only to remain difficult but to deteriorate further. That would involve rising oil prices, more countries joining the conflict, and noticeable economic strain on developed nations. The conflict would also need to persist for months. At present, there are no clear signs of such a scenario, although positive developments from the region remain limited.
There are currently no new patterns for opening positions. In the near term, imbalance 11 may be tested, and if price reacts to it, a decline toward levels below 1.1400 could resume. However, this scenario depends on continued geopolitical support. If the market shifts focus back to standard economic factors, last week's signals from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England—indicating readiness to tighten monetary policy—could support the euro and the pound.
The overall chart structure still suggests bullish dominance. The broader upward trend remains intact, although buyers are currently in a difficult position due to rapidly changing news flow. To open new long positions, traders need new bullish patterns or at least a liquidity sweep of the last two bearish swings. However, a liquidity sweep alone is not a valid trading pattern.
Monday's news flow consisted mainly of Trump's statement about a potential end to the conflict in Iran and possible negotiations with Tehran—claims that were denied by Iran shortly afterward. There were no significant economic releases.
There are still many reasons for buyers to remain active, and the Middle East conflict has not eliminated them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which contributed to the dollar's significant decline last year—have not changed. In the short term, the U.S. dollar may strengthen due to risk aversion, but this factor is unlikely to provide sustained support. Other strong drivers for dollar growth are currently lacking.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support, but it is uncertain how long this will last. At the same time, the bullish trend has been disrupted, and this should be acknowledged. There is still a chance of a liquidity sweep and trend continuation, but geopolitical factors could again weigh on EUR/USD.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:
On March 24, the economic calendar contains a number of events, but none are considered highly significant. The impact on market sentiment may be limited.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
In my view, the pair is still in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news flow shifted direction sharply three weeks ago, but the trend itself cannot yet be considered fully canceled. Therefore, traders need new patterns and signals to form short-term forecasts.
In the near term, sellers may receive a signal at imbalance 11, while the invalidation of imbalance 12 is also a notable signal. Buyers, meanwhile, must rely on the formation of new bullish patterns and signals to initiate long positions.
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