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The GBP/USD pair continues to decline within a broader bullish trend. The only working pattern that may currently be useful for traders remains the bearish imbalance 16. This pattern could have played out last week, but the bulls were literally 6–7 points short of touching it. As a result, the bearish signal was not formed, and traders had no reason to open short positions, even though the pound has since fallen by 250 points. It should also be remembered that the bullish trend is still intact. The pair could fall as low as 1.3100 and still maintain its bullish relevance. Even if a war begins in the Middle East, I doubt the advisability of selling. The current movement appears too emotional and panicked, and such moves usually do not last long.
During the first two days of the week, all media outlets have been writing about the sharp rise in oil and gas prices, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and strikes on oil and gas facilities, which significantly worsen the global economic outlook—especially for energy-dependent European countries. In my view, not only the dollar's safe-haven status plays a role in the current decline of EUR/USD and GBP/USD, but also the deteriorating economic prospects of Europe and the United Kingdom. Rising oil and gas prices (gas in Europe has already increased by 100%) will not only lead to a new surge in inflation but will also significantly reduce industrial production volumes and slow down an economy that is already growing at a modest pace. Thus, the military conflict in the Middle East has simultaneously worked in favor of the dollar and against European currencies.
The bullish trend in the pound remains intact. Therefore, as long as it persists (above the 1.3012 level), I would focus more on bullish signals. The pound's decline may be quite strong, but it could also end at any moment. The only currently active imbalance 16 has not generated any signal. There are no grounds for new trades at this time. A potential liquidity grab from the January 19 swing has not materialized. Bearish imbalances may form this week, but when opening short positions, it is important to understand how long the dollar will continue to enjoy market support amid the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
On Tuesday, there was no significant news background for either the pound or the dollar, which did not stop traders from making new purchases of the latter. The war in the Middle East has little chance of ending anytime soon, and the longer it continues, the more oil and gas facilities will be destroyed or cease operations.
In the United States, the overall news background remains such that, in the long term, nothing but a decline in the dollar should be expected. The war between Iran and the United States has changed little so far. The situation for the U.S. dollar remains quite challenging in the long term and very positive in the short term. But the point is that it is positive only in the short term. U.S. labor market statistics continue to disappoint more often than they please. Three of the last four FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions. Trump's military aggression, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, the initiation of criminal proceedings against Jerome Powell, government shutdowns, the scandal involving the U.S. elite in the Epstein case, a possible impeachment of Trump by the end of the year, and the very likely electoral defeat of Republicans all complement the current picture of political and structural crisis in America. In my view, the bulls have everything they need to continue their offensive throughout 2026.
A bearish trend requires a strong and stable positive news background for the dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need an expensive dollar. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound. Too many risk factors remain hanging like a dead weight over the dollar. Bearish patterns may be considered for opening short trades, but personally, I would not recommend it. I consider the recent decline of the pair to be, to some extent, a coincidence of circumstances.
News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
On March 4, the economic calendar contains two entries, but the market may remain focused not on the economy but on geopolitics. The news background will continue to influence market sentiment on Wednesday.
GBP/USD forecast and trader advice:
The overall picture for the pound remains bullish, although the short-term outlook has turned bearish. There are currently no active bullish patterns. There is only a bearish imbalance, to which price must first return and react before traders can consider potentially opening short positions.
It should be noted that the pound's decline over the past few weeks has been strong enough to transform the bullish picture into a bearish one due to an unfortunate set of circumstances. If Donald Trump had not repeatedly promised to attack Iran, sent warships to the Persian Gulf, and then initiated military action, we likely would not have seen such a sharp decline in the pound. I believe this decline may end just as unexpectedly as it began. In my view, the trend over the past few weeks has not truly shifted to bearish.
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