26.02.202618:39 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, Thursday, gold is posting moderate gains, with bulls aiming for a breakout and consolidation above $5,200 before initiating new buying positions.

Uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policy and geopolitical tensions amid U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations are the main drivers supporting the precious metal as a safe-haven asset. After the Supreme Court's decision on Friday blocking a significant portion of Trump's import tariffs, the president invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose additional 10% tariffs. On Saturday, Trump raised the threshold to 15%, although since Tuesday the rate has been adjusted downward, and a White House representative confirmed efforts to return to the 15% level. Trump's shifting stance on tariffs keeps investors on edge and continues to support gold.

In addition, the third round of U.S.–Iran negotiations aimed at resolving the long-standing nuclear dispute is taking place amid risks of potential U.S. strikes following a military buildup in the Middle East. In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Trump took a hard line on Iran, stating that he would not allow nuclear weapons in the hands of what he called the world's leading sponsor of terrorism. These geopolitical risks continue to fuel demand for gold.

As for the U.S. dollar, despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish rhetoric, markets are pricing in three 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. Concerns about retaliatory measures in response to Trump's tariffs and potential supply chain disruptions are weighing on the dollar, strengthening gold's short-term upward potential.

From a technical standpoint, the breakout above $5,100 became a key bullish signal for XAU/USD. The positive outlook is confirmed by the upward-sloping 200-period simple moving average (SMA), with prices trading above it. Oscillators remain in positive territory, indicating buyer dominance in the market.

Initial support lies at $5,150, which coincides with today's low, followed by $5,100. A break below $5,100 would open the way toward the psychological $5,000 level.

Resistance stands at $5,200, followed by $5,250. A sustained breakout and consolidation above $5,250 would revive bullish momentum, targeting new highs.