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Wave labeling of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair continues to get more confusing due to the recent ascending waves, but overall it remains unchanged in recent days and even weeks. These waves could serve well as an independent bullish section of the trend as the last downward move can be considered a three-wave and completed. The section could also have been already finished if it takes a three-wave form. Thus, the wave picture for EUR/USD can become complicated and it is already very difficult to deal with now. Meanwhile, the construction of a bullish set of waves may end as the peak of the third wave has gone beyond the peak of the first. We saw the same thing in the last downward sequence which looked like the lowest low updated and the section completed. At the same time, there are other wave labeling options. For example, a full-fledged five-wave, yet also a corrective structure. I believe that it is now reasonable to predict a bearish scenario for the instrument because the ascending three-wave move looks well-rounded and finished. Therefore, at this time, the instrument may begin a new downward three-wave move. If the price makes a failed attempt to break through 1.1030, this will indicate the market's readiness to sell.
EUR/USD rose by 25 basis points on Friday, making minor fluctuations again. A 25-pip change in market quotes does not matter for wave labeling. The waves remain the same, and the instrument moved sideways for the whole last week. When dealing with sideways movement, it doesn't make sense to expect changes or corrections in the wave labeling. Therefore, everything remains as before, and it is still unclear whether the currency pair will complete its ascending three-wave move at about 1.10 or whether it will take a more extended and complex shape. I would advise referring to the Fibonacci 0.0% level. Below it, the odds are that the price will make a downward three-wave move.
On Friday, six business activity indices for April were released in Germany and the European Union. The market did not pin too high hopes on this data, and the previous trends carried on. Business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors decreased again. In Germany, the PMI fell to 44, and in the European Union, it dropped to 45.5. No doubt, this is a negative development. Business activity indices in the services sectors went up again. In Germany, it rose to 55.7, and in the European Union, it climbed to 56.6. Thus, the manufacturing sector is still losing momentum, but the services sector is doing well. The market absorbed the data, so the demand for European currency practically did not change.
Currently, the market awaits new information regarding the monetary policy of the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Investors attach importance to a policy decision from the ECB, as there is a 90% chance for the US central bank to raise the funds rate by another 25 basis points in May. This policy decision was already priced in a long time ago. The ECB continues to monitor statistical metrics. Some ECB policymakers advocate for an increase of 50 points, while others support an increase of 25 points. A half-percent increase may again raise demand for the euro, while the second option could reduce demand. All in all, the outlook for the EU currency will depend on the ECB's meeting in May.
Based on the analysis conducted, I conclude that the construction of the bullish trend section is complete. Therefore, selling can now be an appropriate decision as the instrument has ample room for a decline. I think that the target of 1.0600 can be quite realistic. With this target in mind, I advise selling the instrument on downward reversals of the MACD indicator until the price makes a successful attempt to break through 1.1030, though it may not happen.
On a larger wave scale, the wave labeling of the ascending trend section has taken an extended form but it is likely to be over. We have seen five ascending waves, which are most likely to be an a-b-c-d-e structure. The construction of the bearish trend section may not be complete yet, and it can take any form in terms of structure and extent.
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