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Until the ECB takes concrete steps towards tightening its policy, the euro will remain under strong pressure, and the EUR/USD pair is under threat of a new fall below 1.0500, towards euro parity with the dollar.
EUR/USD is declining not only due to the weak euro but also to the strengthening dollar.
In terms of technical analysis, a strong negative impulse prevails. In particular, the Stochastic on the monthly chart of the pair has been in the oversold zone since October 2021, not wanting to leave there, which indicates a strong trend.
And yet, on the lower time frames (daily, 4-hour, 1-hour), technical indicators switched to the side of the buyers, signaling the possibility of continuing the upward correction.
Its immediate targets are resistance levels 1.0748 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 1.0825 (50 EMA on the daily chart), and the signal for this upward movement will be a breakdown of resistance levels 1.0565 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), 1.0640 (local top).
Nevertheless, further growth (above the resistance levels of 1.0748, 1.0825) is unlikely. Below the key resistance levels 1.1245, 1.1285, 1.1500, 1.1720, EUR/USD is in the zone of a long-term bear market, and "a breakdown of the support levels at 1.0500, 1.0470 will confirm our assumption" about further decline in the pair. In the current situation, short positions remain preferable.
Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0470, 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300
Resistance levels: 1.0565, 1.0640, 1.0700, 1.0748, 1.0800, 1.0825, 1.0900, 1.1000, 1.1140, 1.1245, 1.1285
Trading Tips
Sell Stop 1.0520. Stop-Loss 1.0610. Take-Profit 1.0500, 1.0470, 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300
Buy Stop 1.0610. Stop-Loss 1.0520. Take-Profit 1.0640, 1.0700, 1.0748, 1.0800, 1.0825, 1.0900, 1.1000, 1.1140, 1.1245, 1.1285
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