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An unprecedented spur from the White House and the Fed spawned a new bullish rally in the US stock market. The recent bearish phase lasted for only three weeks.
However, a rise in gold to near all-time highs, along with declining treasuries and a collapse in oil prices, as well as the worst condition of the American labor market since the Great Depression, may signal a precipitate stock rally.
In current conditions, gold is in demand due to lower opportunity cost, falling real rates in the United States, and the influx of investments in "gold" ETFs. Even temporary problems with the physical supply of precious metals are a short-term supporting factor. Moreover, the synchronous dynamics of gold and the US stock market should not be surprising.
If in March investors actively sold precious metals amid the collapse of the S&P 500 index in order to maintain open positions in securities, then in April cautious optimism will return to the markets, caused by large-scale incentives from the Fed and the White House, as well as hopes for an early "opening" of the American economics. Investors buy stocks with the expectation that stock indices will recover faster than national GDP. At the same time, they do not forget about precious metals, the acquisition of which is an excellent opportunity to ensure financial risks arising from the current uncertainty.
Last week, the gold exchange rate reached its highest level since 2012, rising above $ 1,780 per ounce. As a result of the correction that followed, a model for continuing the movement in the form of a falling flag was formed, that is, the market took a break and watches how new bulls pick up the banner from the initial buyers, who take profits.
It is assumed that in the short term, due to the consolidation of US stock indexes, gold will find shelter in the trading range of $ 1,635–1,775 per ounce.
As for the more distant prospects, the precious metal may well break the record of nine years ago (assuming that the scale of the Fed's monetary expansion is now significantly larger than in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 crisis). To do this, the bulls in gold will need to overcome two important milestones: $ 1,850 and $ 1,825 per ounce.
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