For Traders

Forex Analysis

Fundamental analysis

31.10.202207:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Janet Yellen: The American economy is in good shape.

The first of the three meetings of central banks has been left behind, and now the market will closely monitor the Fed's meeting, which will be held on Wednesday. All three banks continue to follow the path of tightening monetary policy, but the moment is approaching when rates will rise too much, and their further growth will no longer be necessary. Or the economy will slow down too much, which is why the regulator may refuse new increases. However, this is unlikely to happen in the next month or two, as inflation in the European Union, the UK, or the US remains well above the 2% target. Thus, I doubt that the Fed and the Bank of England will raise rates this week.

In the case of the Fed, the situation is twofold. The US regulator has already raised the rate to 3.25%, and this Wednesday, it will likely rise to 4%. With one or two more increases, the rate will reach a level at which inflation will accelerate its slowdown. It has been declining for three months, but not yet at a high enough pace, so the regulator will not stop there in November. From my point of view, the demand for the US currency may begin to grow again in November-December 2022 since the factor of tightening the Fed's policy is still one of the most significant. The wave marking of the instruments can be transformed again, and the downward section of the trend can resume its construction.

Demand for the dollar may also begin to grow due to the decreasing likelihood of a recession in the United States. The quarterly US GDP report showed that the economy grew by 2.6%, although the previous two quarters were negative. Thus, the slowdown of the US economy is indisputable, but it cannot constantly grow and constantly accelerate its growth. In my opinion, everything is going well for the US economy. The fall wasn't strong enough to sound the alarm. It almost painlessly survived the increase in rates to 3.25%. Inflation has already started to decline, and there are not so many rate hikes left ahead to expect a major reduction.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also believes the US economy is strong and the financial system remains stable. She noted that the situation in the global economy is "too dangerous" at the moment and poses risks to America's financial stability. However, according to her, the administration of President Biden is closely monitoring the situation in the economy and is ready, if necessary, to take certain measures to reduce risks. For the Fed, a strong economy allows it to continue raising rates almost painlessly and fight inflation. The Fed is not currently facing the problem of a falling economy, which may not allow it to raise the rate to the desired level.

The same cannot be said about the Bank of England, which recently had to launch an emergency asset purchase program to stabilize financial markets. Although it will continue to raise the rate, for now, there are big doubts that it will be able to bring the matter to an end without significant damage to the economy.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of an upward trend section has begun, but it may not last very long. At this time, the instrument can build a new impulse wave, so I advise buying with targets near the estimated mark of 1.0361, which equates to 261.8% by Fibonacci, by MACD reversals "up." However, by the end of this trend section, you must be ready now.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2024

More articles by this author

إقترح على صديقك ان يقراء ذلك

E-mail subscription