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The price test at 1.3652 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined to the target level of 1.3623.
A strong business activity report supported the dollar on Friday and undermined the pound's position. The composite PMI soared to 56.0 from 54.5, while the services index jumped to 56.8, indicating the best quarter for American business in four years. Since PMI indices are among the first to capture the state of the economy, such a sharp rise boosted confidence in the economy's resilience and added support for the dollar, especially since employment, according to the surveys, rose at the fastest rate since January 2025.
In this context, the British pound became dependent on external forces and surrendered to the dollar. The strengthening of the U.S. currency undermined demand for riskier assets, causing the GBP/USD pair to retreat.
However, today's empty economic calendar for the UK puts the pound back at the mercy of external factors. Under favorable conditions, buyers of the pound will retain their ability to maintain the initiative, and with support from a weakening dollar, they may even manage to sustain the rise in GBP/USD. The absence of domestic stimuli makes it easier for the pair to solidify last week's advantage.
Pokiaľ ide o intradenné obchodovanie, plánujem postupovať na základe scenárov č. 1 a č. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching an entry point around 1.3649 (green line on the chart), with a growth target of 1.3671 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3671, I plan to exit long positions and sell immediately in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect the pound to rise today in continuation of the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3634, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.3649 and 1.3671.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after it breaks below 1.3634 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3610, where I plan to exit short positions and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Only bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3649, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.3634 and 1.3610.
Dôležité: Začínajúci forexoví obchodníci by mali robiť rozhodnutia o vstupe na trh veľmi opatrne. Aby ste predišli prudkým cenovým výkyvom, je najlepšie nevstupovať na trh pred zverejnením dôležitých fundamentálnych správ. Ak sa rozhodnete obchodovať počas zverejňovania správ, vždy nastavte príkazy stop, aby ste minimalizovali straty. Bez príkazov stop môžete rýchlo prísť o celý svoj vklad, najmä ak nevyužívate money management a obchodujete veľké objemy.
Nezabúdajte, že na úspešné obchodovanie potrebujete jasný obchodný plán, ako je napríklad ten, ktorý je uvedený vyššie. Prijímanie spontánnych obchodných rozhodnutí na základe aktuálnej situácie na trhu je pre intradenného obchodníka vo svojej podstate stratová stratégia.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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