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EUR/USD closed below the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1220 again on Friday and continued to decline on Monday toward the 1.1081–1.1086 support level. A new close above 1.1220 would favor the euro and could lead to a recovery toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1325. Bearish momentum has weakened for now, but the euro remains under pressure and has been unable to make even a modest recovery.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave failed to break below the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken above the previous high. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders expect at least one more monetary policy tightening before the end of the year and another next year. This factor continues to provide substantial support for the US dollar, while other factors are being largely disregarded. Bearish sentiment remains strong, further supporting the dollar's advance.
There was no significant news flow on Monday, but this did not pose a problem for bearish traders. They resumed selling, and as bullish traders continued to remain on the sidelines, the euro lost approximately another half a cent in value. The latest EUR/USD decline probably came as no surprise to anyone, and the market did not even attempt to examine the reasons behind it. The factors driving the US dollar's substantial appreciation have been known for some time. Some traders and analysts question them because of their ambiguity, while others find them entirely convincing. In this assessment, the dollar is no longer rising because of the underlying fundamentals but rather in spite of them. Sooner or later, the market will begin correcting the euro's exchange rate toward a more reasonable level. The economic situation in the EU and the broader news backdrop do not appear weak enough to justify another month of dollar appreciation. The monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB also do not clearly favor the dollar, as the European Central Bank is tightening its policy as well.
On the four-hour chart, the pair has still been unable to begin recovering despite the formation of four bullish divergences. The price has once again closed below the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1221, suggesting a possible continuation of the decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 161.8% at 1.1088. A new close above 1.1221 would open the way for a bullish advance, although its probability remains relatively low at present. Divergences on the CCI and RSI indicators have been unable to stop the bears.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 4,837 long positions and 40,913 short positions. Speculators now hold a total of 243,000 long positions and 342,000 short positions. The bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more frequently than it is bought. This is attributed to the challenging geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's strong determination to bring inflation down. The market continues to believe that inflation will be reduced to 2% by any means necessary.
Overall, major market participants remain strongly interested in the euro over the longer term. Global events of various kinds, which have been abundant in recent years, inevitably influence investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Moreover, 2026 could set a record for the number of unforeseen events. As a result, traders have little choice but to adjust their strategies as conditions evolve.
US and EU Economic Calendar:
The economic calendar for October 13 contains two releases, neither of which is considered significant. The economic backdrop is therefore expected to have no meaningful impact on market sentiment on Tuesday.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Buying the pair is possible following an hourly close above 1.1220, with a target of 1.1325. Selling opportunities arose when the pair closed below 1.1220, targeting the 1.1081–1.1086 support level. These short positions may remain open, with the stop-loss moved to breakeven.
The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and four-hour charts.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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