29.09.202611:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Crypto market confused

After yesterday's sell-off, the market showed a modest recovery: Bitcoin and Ethereum bounced higher, regaining part of their lost ground and preserving a chance to continue the bull trend.

The move supported overall optimism, although volatility remains elevated. Against this backdrop, corporate buyers continue to build reserves. BitMine, a company founded by Tom Lee of Fundstrat, last week added another 17,362 ETH. It now holds over 6 million ETH on its balance sheet — about 4.9% of the asset's total supply. The company's stated goal is to reach a 5% share of total Ethereum. Tom Lee himself, head of Fundstrat and BitMine, forecasts that Q4 2026 will mark the start of one of the largest bull markets in crypto history. His confidence is backed by moves from other institutions. Meanwhile, Strategy acquired 1,665 BTC, increasing its portfolio to 847,666 coins. Such accumulation by large players confirms that the current correction is viewed as a long-term buying opportunity rather than a signal to exit.

Against the backdrop of buying, open interest on futures markets draws special attention. It has not fallen — it is still rising, indicating inflows of new capital rather than the closing of existing positions. This is an important indicator that distinguishes the current phase from a mere technical bounce.

Institutional strategies are also shifting toward longer-term holding. The average holding period on large wallets is increasing, and transfers to exchanges remain at multi-month lows. This suggests that major holders do not plan to take profits at current levels.

In the short term, the market will likely remain range-bound with a gradual tilt toward the upper band. However, the resilience of the bull trend will depend directly on buyers' ability to defend key support levels in the event of another volatility wave.

Bitcoin

The trading plan is based on the corridor between support at $83,700 and resistance at $84,200, with wider targets at $83,100 below and $84,800 above. I analyse two mirrored directions, and each contains breakout and rejection scenarios.

For buy positions, the first scenario is valid when the price breaks above $84,200 and holds above that level. I enter long positions only if the price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is positive. The target is $84,800, where I take profits and may consider short positions on a pullback. The second buy scenario applies when the price drops below $83,700 but fails to hold there and returns above — i.e., a false downside breakout. Then, I buy the dip, targeting $84,200 first and extending to $84,800 if the price remains above.

The sell picture is symmetrical. If price breaks below $83,700 with confirmation (moving average above price and Awesome below zero), I consider a short position to $83,100. If the price rises above $84,200 but cannot hold and falls back below (an unconfirmed upside breakout), I sell that rebound with an initial target of $83,700 and then $83,100 if weakness persists.

Ethereum

The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. The corridor here is tighter: support at $2,695 and resistance at $2,716, with wider targets at $2,665 below and $2,739 above.

A breakout triggers buying if the price closes above $2,716 while above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome indicator is positive. A target is $2,739, where I take profits and watch for a short position on a pullback. The bounce buy is used when price briefly pierces $2,695 to the downside but does not hold and returns above — I buy that dip, first targeting $2,716, then $2,739 if sustained.

The sell breakout scenario begins with a close below $2,695 (moving average above price, the Awesome indicator is negative), targeting $2,665. The rejection sell is considered after a failed close above $2,716 and a return beneath the level — I sell the bounce targeting $2,695 and then $2,665 if pressure continues.

Both the moving average and the Awesome oscillator are used as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone entry signals. I take action only after price actually confirms the levels described.