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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair made a second consecutive rebound from the 23.6% corrective level at 1.3339 on Friday, followed by some growth toward the 50.0% corrective level at 1.3414. However, on Monday morning, the bears once again seized the initiative and began moving the pair back toward 1.3339. Another rebound from this level would once again allow the bulls to launch a counterattack toward 1.3414.
The market situation has turned bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the new downward wave, which is still forming, broke the previous low. Thus, the bears now have the initiative. The tightening of FOMC monetary policy and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh sharply improved sentiment among the bears. A reversal of the current trend is now possible only above 1.3567.
In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England announced the results of its latest meeting last week. The outcome was rather uneventful, as only three MPC members voted in favor of tighter monetary policy, as traders had expected. Thus, no decision was made to raise interest rates. The Bank of England, led by Andrew Bailey, stated that inflation in the UK could accelerate to 4% by the end of the year, which would make tighter monetary policy appropriate. However, at present, a rate increase is not required, and inflation remains under the regulator's control. The tone of the Bank of England's statements contrasted sharply with the tone of Kevin Warsh's remarks, which is why the U.S. dollar remained popular for most of the current week. The pound may have found a bottom at 1.3339, but this is not enough for the bulls to generate upward movement. So far, they have only managed to halt the bears' advance. Neither the bears nor the bulls are likely to receive much support on Monday, as there will be no significant information flow today.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair declined to the 61.8% corrective level at 1.3348. A rebound in the quotes from 1.3348 would allow for some growth in the pound toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3409. Consolidation of the pair below 1.3348 would favor a resumption of the decline toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.3277. No new emerging divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators.
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 11,866, while the number of Short positions decreased by 2,605. The current gap between Long and Short positions is effectively 74,000 versus 132,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still retain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but it is now less clear because the information background has changed.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before they had really begun. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future. The Fed's position on monetary policy remains contradictory.
On September 21, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The economic background will have no influence on market sentiment on Monday.
Selling the pair is possible today after consolidation below 1.3339 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3272. Buying was possible after a rebound from 1.3339, with targets at 1.3381 and 1.3414. The first target was reached. New buying opportunities may arise after another rebound from 1.3339.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3557 to 1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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