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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the British pound on Thursday and consolidated above the 1.3526 level, allowing traders to expect further growth toward the 1.3556 and 1.3633 levels. Consolidation below the 1.3526 level today would favor the U.S. dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3489.
The market situation remains bullish. The latest completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Thus, the bulls currently have the initiative in the market, and their advantage remains intact. The bullish trend can be considered broken only after the low of the latest completed wave is broken, that is, below the 1.3414 level, or after two downward waves form.
The fundamental background on Thursday allowed the bears to make a local advance. The ISM Services Business Activity Index came in at 55.4 points in August, compared with the market expectation of 54.3 points. Thus, this was the first report this week to support the U.S. dollar, yet it had no effect on market sentiment. I do not see any point in highlighting the other reports, as the most important one was ignored. Traders are waiting for the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports, which will be released today, so the other indicators are of no significance. Let me remind you that the FOMC's September decision will largely depend on the state of the labor market in August, but at the same time, it will not be the determining factor (in my view). The U.S. labor market has been experiencing another difficult period for several months already. One report, even a positive one, will not change the overall trend. Thus, the dollar may receive only local support today. Next week, another highly important U.S. inflation report will be released. If it turns out that the Consumer Price Index slowed for the third consecutive time, the FOMC will 100% refrain from tightening policy.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair declined to the 1.3467–1.3482 support level, rebounded from it after a bullish divergence formed on the CCI indicator, reversed in favor of the British pound, and rose to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3538. A rebound from this level today would favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward the 1.3467–1.3482 level. Consolidation above the 1.3638 level would allow traders to expect further growth toward the 0.0% retracement level at 1.3657.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the Non-commercial trader category became less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 16,269, while the number of Short positions increased by 6,220. The gap between the number of Long and Short positions is currently effectively as follows: 93 thousand versus 1,382 thousand. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still maintain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance raised no questions, but it does now, as the fundamental background has changed.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the British pound, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future. The Fed's position on monetary policy remains contradictory.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On September 4, the economic events calendar contains three entries, each of which can be considered important. The economic background will influence market sentiment on Friday during the second half of the day.
GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:
Selling the pair is possible today on a rebound from the 1.3556 level on the hourly chart and on a close below the 1.3526 level, with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3447. Buying is possible today on a rebound from the 1.3526 level and on a close above 1.3556, with a target of 1.3633.
The Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.3557–1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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