The legend in the InstaSpot team!
Legend! You think that's bombastic rhetoric? But how should we call a man, who became the first Asian to win the junior world chess championship at 18 and who became the first Indian Grandmaster at 19? That was the start of a hard path to the World Champion title for Viswanathan Anand, the man who became a part of history of chess forever. Now one more legend in the InstaSpot team!
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Bitcoin and Ethereum are still going through a correction, which could take quite a long time. Over the past month and a half, Ethereum and Bitcoin have managed a modest recovery, but there are still no signs that the downtrend that began last year has ended. The fundamental backdrop remains weak for the crypto market, primarily expressed in low spot demand, capital flowing into the artificial intelligence sector, and the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation to 2%, which implies at least a continued tight monetary policy. Thus, we still see no reasons for a sustained rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Meanwhile, it has become known that Strategy executed another Bitcoin sale of roughly $109 million. Proceeds were used to repurchase its own preferred shares and to top up dollar reserves. Interestingly, this is the company's fourth sale after once adhering to a "never sell Bitcoin" principle. Times change, and the strategy the company has followed for six years is no longer successful. Reportedly, the new management has set a task to increase the value of the preferred shares, which, even after the series of Bitcoin sales, trade below par.
At the same time, Michael Saylor still insists that selling Bitcoin is a losing strategy and that he personally will never do it. But he also notes that Strategy is not his personal company, so it may make decisions different from his own. In other words, Saylor's position has also shifted. He personally cannot abandon the "buy everything and never sell" strategy, but his company no longer follows that principle, acknowledging the strategy's inefficiency. It is worth noting that currently all of Strategy's Bitcoin investments are underwater. Despite strong growth of the "digital gold" in recent years, the company bought at any price, which is, in our view, the main mistake. If Strategy had bought the lows and sold the highs (the classic approach), it might not have faced losses and a lack of profit after six years of investing.
Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downtrend. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), although this level has essentially already been tested. We do not consider the downtrend to be over. The last bearish FVG pattern was formed in the $68,000–$70,700 area on the daily timeframe, so this area acts as a POI for short positions over the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is again inclined to fall, but movements will most likely remain choppy and swing-like.
On the daily timeframe, the downtrend that began in August last year continues to develop. The key sell pattern remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. We do not believe the current downtrend is over, as there are no signs of its completion in either Bitcoin or Ethereum. A second leg of the correction is currently ongoing, which lately has transformed into a flat/range. In a flat, you can only trade from its boundaries; the subsequent direction will be determined after the flat ends. Around the upper boundary of the sideways channel, $1,800–$1,942, no deviation or pattern has formed, so no trade signal has been generated.
CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG is Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG stands for Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB means Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
Uz InstaSpot-ove analitičke preglede uvek ćete biti u toku sa tržišnim trendovima! Klijentima InstaSpot-a su dostupni mnogobrojni besplatni servisi za uspešno trgovanje.
