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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to trade around the 1.3454–1.3458 level on Thursday, paying no attention to the zone itself. Consolidation below it would suggest that the pound may continue to decline toward the 38.2% retracement level at 1.3397, but today traders' sentiment and actions will depend not on technical signals. Consolidation back above the 1.3454–1.3458 level would allow for expectations of a rise toward the next resistance level at 1.3526–1.3557.
The wave structure remains "bearish," strange as that may sound. The latest completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the latest upward wave (which is still forming) did not break the previous high. Thus, bears remain in control of the market, although they may lose the initiative in the near future. In my view, the "bearish" impulse of 2026 is complete; only geopolitics can prevent the bulls from continuing their advance. Geopolitics remains contradictory.
The news background on Thursday did not provoke any reaction from traders, as only one report was released during the day, and it could hardly be called interesting. However, the number of initial U.S. jobless claims almost exactly matched market expectations, while traders prefer to focus on the most important reports that will be released today. The ADP and JOLTS reports made it possible to form some view of the situation in the U.S. labor market, but it is precisely the payrolls and unemployment reports that will deliver the final verdict. Thus, in the second half of the day, I expect strong market movements that will depend entirely on the reports mentioned above. I would also like to note that an equally important inflation report will be released in the U.S. next week, which will also have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar. At present, it is precisely the combination of labor market and inflation data that is key for the dollar and traders.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD has returned to the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level. A rebound from this zone would once again allow for expectations of a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3409. Consolidation above the 1.3467–1.3482 level would allow traders to expect further growth toward the next retracement level of 23.6% at 1.3538. No impending divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more "bearish" over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 2,824, while the number of Short positions increased by 6,429. The current gap between the number of Long and Short positions is effectively as follows: 61 thousand versus 126 thousand. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but now it is, as the news background has changed.
I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound, but in the near future everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central banks' monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted to peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.
On August 7, the economic events calendar contains three entries, and I consider at least two of them very important. The economic news background may influence market sentiment in the second half of the day on Friday.
Selling the pair is possible today if the hourly chart closes below the 1.3454–1.3458 level, with targets at 1.3397 and 1.3348. Buying is possible if the hourly chart closes above the 1.3454–1.3458 level, with a target of 1.3526–1.3557. Traders' sentiment may change sharply following the release of the U.S. reports.
The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3140 to 1.3557 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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