06.08.202610:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hiring in US turning sour, while wages for job changers accelerating

According to the latest data, US private employers added 44,000 new jobs in July, according to an ADP Research report. The modest headline number by itself does not tell the whole story. ADP focused less on the volume of hiring than on wage dynamics as a more informative indicator of the true state of the labor market. "Hiring across sectors was uneven last month, but wage levels made clear what was happening. Annual wage growth for people changing jobs accelerated and reached its fastest pace in nearly a year," the report reads.

This signal deserves special attention because the pace of wage growth for job changers is traditionally seen as one of the most sensitive indicators of real labor market tightness. Job changers are highly responsive to actual economic conditions, and their rapid wage gains imply supply constraints in some segments of the labor market. In other words, despite the modest overall job gain, where demand for specific skills remains high, employers are having to pay noticeably more.

The breakdown by company size showed a clear skew toward small businesses. Firms with 1–19 employees created 27,000 jobs, more than half of the total increase, while businesses with 20–49 employees added only 4,000. Mid-sized firms posted modest results: companies with 50–249 employees created 2,000 jobs, and those with 250–499 employees added 6,000. Large firms (500+ employees) added 13,000 jobs, well behind the contribution from small businesses.

The industry picture was mixed, with services clearly dominating goods-producing sectors. Among goods-producing sectors, natural resources and mining added 6,000 jobs, construction only 1,000, and manufacturing 2,000. The services sector made a much larger contribution: trade, transportation, and utilities added 8,000 jobs; information 5,000; financial activities 10,000; professional and business services 9,000; and other services 6,000.

The standout performers for the month were education and health services, which added 36,000 jobs — more than 80% of July's total employment gain. Leisure and hospitality also made a notable contribution, adding 11,000 jobs.