04.08.202609:39 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold Returns to the $4,060 Level

Today, gold rose by 0.5% to $4,068.07 per ounce. Silver gained 1% to $58.14, platinum increased by 0.6%, and palladium was up 1.1%.

Despite fluctuations, gold is trading in a narrow range. Traders are monitoring diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which could lower energy prices and alleviate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates. After canceling the strike, President Trump stated that his latest offer to negotiate was Tehran's last chance and expressed expectations of a complete resumption of operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, meanwhile, denied any negotiations with the U.S., but said that discussions with Oman on increasing shipping through the strait are progressing.

A separate storyline for the day is the defense of the Japanese yen. U.S. and Japanese officials made it clear yesterday that they intend to continue defending the currency after their first joint intervention in 15 years. There is an important structural nuance here that could affect the global debt market: Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, and any sales of securities to finance efforts to support its currency risk creating additional pressure on American bonds at a time when inflationary concerns and the war in Iran are already pushing yields upward.

The scale of gold's decline since the onset of the conflict serves as a significant reminder of the metal's vulnerability to rising rates. Since the beginning of the U.S.-Iran war in late February, gold has fallen by more than one-fifth, as high energy prices have fueled inflationary pressures and increased the likelihood that rates will remain high for longer, acting as a headwind for precious metals. Nevertheless, last week, Fed representatives decided to keep policy unchanged, although three committee members voted for a hike.

New York Fed President John Williams recently stated in an interview that rates remain well-positioned, as inflation is expected to ease in the second half of the year. He added that if inflation does not behave as anticipated, the central bank will have to act.

As for the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4,124. This would set the target at $4,186, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be in the $4,249 range. In the event of a decline, bears will try to take control at $4,062. If successful, a breakout of this range could deal a serious blow to bull positions and push gold down to a low of $4,008, with the potential to reach $3,954.