03.08.202610:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold at $4,070: Talks with Iran Resume, Dollar Weakens

Today, gold rose by 0.5% to $4,068.07 per ounce. Silver gained 1% to $58.14, platinum increased by 0.6%, and palladium was up 1.1%.

The catalyst for this increase was President Trump's announcement that new negotiations with Iran would start later on Monday, reviving hopes for a breakthrough in the months-long conflict and potentially alleviating inflation driven by energy shocks. Trump stated that he canceled a large-scale attack on Iran after Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, urged him to seek a deal instead.

Meanwhile, precious metals traders are closely monitoring further steps from the Federal Reserve after The New York Times reported, citing Chairman Kevin Warsh, that he is considering reducing the frequency of monetary policy meetings. Any such change would represent a significant shift for the American central bank, which currently holds eight meetings a year and voted 9 to 3 last Wednesday to leave interest rates unchanged. Traders are already critical of Warsh's attempts to limit market signals about the direction of rates, and there is growing pressure on the Fed to act more aggressively to contain inflation. Three dissenting representatives at the last meeting warned that prolonged waiting could necessitate even more aggressive measures in the future.

Currently, rising yields on U.S. government bonds could exert pressure on gold. However, this correlation remains relatively weak for now. The turbulence associated with Iran is likely to continue leading to spikes in volatility.

The magnitude of gold's drop since the beginning of the conflict serves as a significant reminder of the depth of the correction experienced. Since the start of the U.S.-Iran War more than five months ago, the metal has declined by more than one-fifth, as high energy prices have intensified inflationary pressure and increased the likelihood that rates will remain high longer, creating headwinds for non-yielding precious metals. The market appears to be balancing between two fragile sources of support: a diplomatic pause with Iran and the Fed's cautiously softened rhetoric, both of which could shift at any moment under adverse conditions.

As for the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4,124. This would allow for targeting $4,186, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The most distant target would be in the $4,249 range. In the event of a price decline, bears will attempt to take control at $4,062. If successful, a breakdown of this range could deal a serious blow to bull positions and push gold down to a low of $4,008, with the potential to reach $3,954.