29.07.202613:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on July 29th (US Session)

Trade analysis and trading advice for the British pound

The 1.3303 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by only 5 points.

Going forward, market participants will closely monitor the Fed's monetary policy meeting. The main focus is on the interest rate decision. The regulator is expected to keep the current rate unchanged, guided by the goal of stabilising the economic situation. However, even if there is no change in the rate, comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will be of particular importance. His rhetoric and intentions regarding future steps on inflation could have a significant impact on the markets.

Kevin Warsh's public speeches always attract increased attention, especially during periods of uncertainty. His reputation as a supporter of a tighter monetary policy, particularly in the context of fighting inflation, is already well established. If Warsh confirms this position during his speech, the market may interpret it as a signal of possible future monetary tightening, even if the current decision remains unchanged.

Such a scenario, in which the Fed Chair demonstrates a hawkish stance, is likely to put pressure on the British pound against the US dollar. In addition, expectations regarding future Fed actions may affect overall risk appetite. If Warsh's comments are interpreted as a sign of higher borrowing costs in the long term, this could lead to broad US dollar strengthening against other currencies as well. In this case, GBP/USD would come under double pressure — both from specific concerns related to the UK and from the broader trend of dollar appreciation.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3303 (the green line on the chart), with a target of growth towards the 1.3355 level (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3355, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Further pound growth today can only be expected following a dovish Fed stance. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests the 1.3285 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Growth towards the opposite levels of 1.3303 and 1.3355 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3285 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3243 level, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound will return following a hawkish Fed stance. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests the 1.3303 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downwards. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.3285 and 1.3243 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimise losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.