28.07.202613:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on July 28th (US Session)

Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the Euro

The test of the 1.1365 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed the validity of the entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.

As expected, the lack of new economic data had a noticeable impact on the euro during the first half of the day. However, such situations are not unusual: markets lacking new information typically continue moving in the previously established direction. The euro's decline is driven by the overall sentiment across global markets, where caution prevails ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, creating negative conditions for risk-sensitive assets.

Today's key events will begin with the release of trade balance data. A reduction in the trade deficit may serve as a positive indicator for the economy, while an increase may signal potential challenges. The trade balance report will be followed by consumer confidence data. This indicator reflects the level of consumer optimism regarding current and expected economic conditions. A high level of consumer confidence is usually associated with increased spending, which is an important factor supporting economic growth. Conversely, declining confidence may indicate a slowdown in consumer activity.

The final major release on today's economic calendar will be the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the 20 largest metropolitan areas. This index is considered one of the most reliable indicators of the health of the US housing market. A rise in the index could also support further gains in the US dollar.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Scenario #1:

Today, I will consider buying the euro when the price reaches around 1.1371 (the green line on the chart), with a target of a move towards 1.1398. At 1.1398, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro can be expected today if the economic data is weak.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider buying the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1352 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal higher. A move towards the opposite levels of 1.1371 and 1.1398 can then be expected.

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1352 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1324, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a reversal move of 20–25 points from the level. Selling pressure on the pair will return if the economic data is strong.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider selling the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1371 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal lower. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1352 and 1.1324 can then be expected.

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimise losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade with large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.