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The sharp decline in crude oil prices supports the demand for gold, which, in turn, is also rising on the wave of dollar weakness ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting.
The drop in crude oil prices against the backdrop of the cessation of mutual shelling between the US and Iran this weekend once again instills optimism in market participants. Against this backdrop, stock indices are rising both in the Asia-Pacific region and in Europe. Futures on American stock indices are also trading in the green zone. Gold and silver are receiving support.
In the Forex market, the dollar is declining against major currencies. However, in addition to the decreasing escalation of the Middle Eastern crisis, the expectation of the outcome from the Fed's monetary policy meeting, which begins on Tuesday and concludes on Wednesday, negatively impacts it. According to the consensus forecast, the Fed is expected to maintain all monetary policy parameters unchanged with a probability of 66.3%. At the press conference, Chair K. Warsh may suggest that the central bank, given the uncertainty regarding the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East, might pause its decision on rates and will rely on incoming economic data.
So, what can be expected in the markets ahead of the Fed meeting?
I believe that the US dollar will remain under pressure, while gold traded against it will, on the contrary, receive support. The absence of the prospect of interest rate hikes and the expectation of the inflation report amid a local rebound in crude oil prices will likely serve as the basis for making no changes, which will be the reason for the dollar's weakening against the ICE index to the mark of 100.00 points.
The price of gold is consolidating above the level of 4085.00 in anticipation of the outcome of the Fed's monetary policy meeting, supported by the weakening of the dollar against the backdrop of falling oil prices. In this context, it may receive support and rise to 4152.80. The buying level may be the mark of 4100.85.
The pair is trading below the resistance level of 163.20. The outcome of the Fed meeting may lead to its decline to 162.26. The selling level may be the mark of 162.93.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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