27.07.202610:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold Above $4100: US-Iran Conflict Pause Eases Inflation Risks

Gold rose by 1.3 percent to $4103.43 per ounce, briefly adding 1.6 percent and exceeding $4100, following an increase of nearly 1 percent in the previous week. Silver jumped 2.7 percent to $59.75, and both platinum and palladium also increased in price.

The rise was prompted by a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran over the weekend, which alleviated oil supply risks and inflation concerns. The US suspended nearly two weeks of strikes against Iran without any explanations or official statements. At the same time, Iran indicated that it would refrain from retaliatory attacks and engaged in negotiations with Oman regarding key shipping issues through the Strait of Hormuz. Against this backdrop, oil collapsed at the start of the week: Brent fell more than 7 percent below $90 per barrel in the first few minutes before cutting losses.

Easing inflation risks through the oil channel has become a key factor for gold. In recent weeks, the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East after a temporary ceasefire has heightened inflationary pressure and increased the likelihood of a Fed rate hike, creating headwinds for the non-yielding metal. Fed observers expect this week's rate decision to be contentious, as the recent rise in energy prices contradicts a softer-than-expected June consumer price report.

It is clear that the current pause in hostilities is positive for gold, but the market requires a significant settlement between the US and Iran before betting on gold growth beyond the $4000-$4200 range. Yields and inflation expectations will remain elevated while the conflict persists, and this is currently the main factor restraining gold.

Since the end of June, the metal has predominantly fluctuated around the $4000 per ounce mark, with waves of buying on dips keeping it above the psychological threshold that some traders consider key support.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4124. This would allow for a target of $4186, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target would be in the $4249 area. If gold falls, bears will attempt to take control of $4062. If successful, breaking through this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4008, with the prospect of reaching $3954.