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The test of the 1.3419 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.
The absence of US economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials during the second half of today's session will determine the direction of the pound. Without fresh data or comments from Fed policymakers, traders will lack the usual catalysts for reassessing their positions. These releases normally shape expectations for the Fed's interest rate path and influence the strength of the US dollar.
In the absence of these drivers, the market's attention will shift to geopolitical developments. The situation in the Middle East and any unexpected statements from Donald Trump are likely to become the primary sources of market volatility. Under these conditions, the pound will largely be influenced by movements in the US dollar and overall risk sentiment. If market conditions remain calm, demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset is likely to persist, limiting GBP/USD's upward potential through the end of the session.
As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the execution of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches the 1.3418 entry level (the green line on the chart), targeting 1.3441 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3441, I intend to close my long positions and consider opening short positions, anticipating a 30–35 point reversal from that level. A strong rally in the pound is only likely if weak US data is released.
Important: Before entering a long position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3399 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and could trigger an upward reversal. In this case, a move toward 1.3418 and 1.3441 may be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.3399 (the red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The primary downside target is 1.3375, where I intend to close my short positions and immediately consider opening long positions, anticipating a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure on the pound is expected to persist through the end of the day.
Important: Before entering a short position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3418 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a downward reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.3399 and 1.3375 may be expected.
Beginner Forex traders should exercise caution when making trading decisions. It is generally advisable to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental data to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you trade large position sizes without proper risk management.
Finally, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
Uz InstaSpot-ove analitičke preglede uvek ćete biti u toku sa tržišnim trendovima! Klijentima InstaSpot-a su dostupni mnogobrojni besplatni servisi za uspešno trgovanje.
