After a direct telephone call from the country's leader to the head of the sporting organization, FIFA invoked Article 27 of its Disciplinary Code and suspended the ruling for one year on probation. Trump called the step a correction of a great injustice, and an outraged Belgium immediately filed official appeals. According to the influential sports outlet The Athletic, the Royal Belgian Football Association has already won the right to formally challenge FIFA's controversial verdict. To eliminate any conflict of interest, the complaint will be examined by an independent committee member with no ties to European or American federations.
Meanwhile, Trump's dangerous precedent has sparked a chain reaction among other World Cup participants. The French Football Federation urgently demanded that FIFA annul Michael Olise's yellow card, received in the Round of 16 match against Paraguay, so the midfielder could face Morocco without the threat of suspension. At the same time, a member of the British Parliament sent an open letter to Gianni Infantino demanding the cancellation of Jarrell Quans' red card, shown after a VAR prompt for a dangerous tackle in the England–Mexico game.
The global economy has remarkably easily absorbed the loss of more than 1 billion barrels of oil since the start of the war with Iran. However, because long?term peace remains elusive and reserves are gradually depleted, the risk of further price shocks is real. Tanker transit along the US-protected corridor in the Strait of Hormuz is slowly recovering, despite chaotic maneuvers by ships over the past weekend. Movement of six oil and gas tankers was recorded off the Omani coast, though that is just the tip of the iceberg, since many captains deliberately switch off transponders to evade radar. Western naval forces warn that the level of danger in the region remains "significant," and the central part of the strait is still mined, forcing some smaller vessels to run closer to the Iranian shore.
Logistical routes in the waters remain completely unpredictable as shipowners try by all means to avoid unwanted attention from Iranian forces. On Friday and Saturday, at least eight large vessels made emergency U-turns along the Oman route; four of them then headed north toward the Iranian corridor and successfully exited the danger zone. Some Suezmax-class tankers prefer to transit "blind," activating satellite tracking systems only after reaching the safe waters of the Gulf of Oman. According to analytics firm Kpler, 19 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in both directions on Saturday versus 13 on Friday, but only one of them openly broadcast its signal along the Omani coast — evidence of a large share of hidden "shadow" traffic.
Official Tehran continues to insist on its own rules, saying any maritime transit must take place exclusively through corridors approved by the Islamic Republic. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) confirmed ongoing pressure on the commercial fleet from the Iranian navy. Throughout the conflict, crews trying to leave the Persian Gulf have regularly been ordered to stop by radio, and Iranian forces have opened fire on those who ignored orders. Today, the willingness of tanker companies to accept enormous military risks in this narrow channel is decisive for stabilizing the global energy market, which is trying to recover after a historic four-month crisis.
Christopher Waller of the Federal Reserve Board made a noteworthy statement about the future of US monetary policy. In his view, a fixed inflation anchor may be too rigid a constraint for the regulator. Waller said he would prefer a target set as a flexible range rather than a single number. Still, he acknowledged that reforming the framework at this stage could seriously undermine investors' confidence in the Fed. At the same time, Waller stressed that recent speeches by the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, have clearly reaffirmed the institution's commitment to the classic 2% target, which remains a powerful stabilizing signal for global markets. The discussion of an inflation corridor makes sense if the policy reaction to economic challenges becomes less clear to businesses.
In his remarks, Waller also addressed the Fed's independence from the White House. He strongly emphasized that the regulator will not artificially keep interest rates low to make it easier for Washington to finance the growing federal budget deficit. Assessing macro prospects, he noted early signs of stabilization in the US labor market. However, the key market takeaway was his warning that the balance of systemic risks in the economy has shifted back toward inflationary pressure. In doing so, Waller made it clear that the Fed does not intend to stray from its central line of firmly ensuring price stability.
Gold has corrected to $4,140 an ounce, pulling back from two-week highs under pressure from a stronger US dollar. The decline was limited, however, by fresh signs of cooling in the US labor market. Published macro data recorded a sharp slowdown in job creation in June and downward revisions to the previous two months' figures — factors that forced investors to scale back expectations of imminent monetary tightening. At the same time, oil prices eased moderately: the gradual recovery of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of increased supplies from the OPEC+ alliance are prompting traders' justified fears of potential oversupply. Market participants are now awaiting the Fed minutes due on Wednesday. The probability of a September rate hike is still viewed by the market as above 50%.
Investment bank Bank of America, together with EPFR Global under Michael Hartnett, released data showing the largest outflow from the US stock market since March. In the week to July 1, investors withdrew $17.2 billion from US-stock-focused funds — the first net outflow after three months of continuous inflows. The freed capital began to be redeployed to international markets: notably, Japan's stock market recorded a seven-week high inflow of $1.9 billion. Overall, the net outflow from the global equity market amounted to $13.9 billion.
The semiconductor index plunged 11% in two days amid doubts about AI. Growing skepticism among major market participants about the justification for the current sky-high valuations of AI companies continues to exert strong downward pressure on the tech sector. Semiconductor manufacturers have been the main victims of this re-rating: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 11% over the last two days.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. say the recent frantic rally in chip stocks looks highly unstable and speculative. Bank specialists point to a dangerous valuation imbalance between American chipmakers and the firms actually deploying artificial intelligence. According to JPMorgan, that valuation gap lacks solid end-user fundamentals and is likely to narrow over time via a deep market correction.
07 July, 02:30 / Japan / Household spending (May) / prev.: -2.9% / actual: -0.5% / forecast: -2.5% / USD/JPY – up
Consumer activity in Japan for April showed clear signs of recovery, far exceeding investors' pessimistic expectations. Year-on-year, the decline in household spending slowed to -0.5%, the smallest drop in five months. The main driver of the improvement was the easing of inflationary pressure, which allowed households to sharply increase spending on:
Such a strong rebound will push the yen lower.
07 July, 02:30 / Japan / Average earnings (April) / prev.: 3.0% / actual: 3.1% / forecast: 3.2% / USD/JPY – down
Wage growth in Japan continues to accelerate and is a key pillar for a sustainable pick-up in domestic consumption. The positive dynamics are broad-based: strong gains are recorded across most major sectors, including economic drivers such as:
The inflationary impulse from the labor market leaves little doubt that the Bank of Japan will be forced to continue rate hikes at upcoming meetings. Expectations of monetary tightening will provide strong support for the national currency.
07 July, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Halifax House Price Index (June) / prev.: 0.4% / actual: 0.5% / forecast: 0.3% / GBP/USD – down
The UK housing market continues to stagnate under tight lending conditions. High mortgage rates and falling consumer confidence are keeping buyers on the sidelines. Confirmation of a protracted slowdown in construction and housing would signal weak domestic recovery momentum and limit sterling's upside.
07 July, 09:00 / Germany / Industrial production (May, m/m) / prev.: -1.0% / actual: 0.4% / forecast: -0.2% / EUR/USD – down
The German industrial sector remains under pressure: after a brief and tentative rebound in April, May industrial output risks returning to negative territory. Energy-intensive heavy industries are still in recession, worsened by logistical disruptions in global supply chains due to geopolitical conflicts. Another decline in the eurozone's main engine will disappoint investors, signaling weakness in Europe's largest economy and pressuring the euro.
07 July, 14:30 / US / Trade balance (May) / prev.: -$56.6 bn / actual: -$55.9 bn / forecast: -$78.5 bn / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down
The report is expected to show a sharp widening of the US trade deficit in May to $78.5 billion.
The main drivers of the widening trade gap are:
If the consensus forecast is confirmed, the increased imbalance will point to elevated capital outflows and exert local downward pressure on the dollar index.
07 July, 14:30 / Canada / Trade balance (May) / prev.: C$1.75 bn / actual: C$2.72 bn / forecast: C$2.00 bn / USD/CAD – up
Canada's trade surplus in May is expected to narrow to C$2.00 billion. Despite relatively stable energy prices, commodity exports show signs of moderate slowing due to cooling demand from key trading partners, while imports remain high. A shrinking trade surplus will reduce foreign-currency inflows, weaken the Canadian dollar, and push USD/CAD higher.
07 July, 15:30 / US / ADP private-sector employment change (weekly average) / prev.: 26.5k / actual: 30.75k / forecast: — / USDX – volatile
ADP data show average private-sector employment increased by 30.75 thousand jobs per week over the four weeks to June 6, 2026. This figure corresponds to strong employment readings over the past two months, reflecting a resilient US labor market.
07 July, 13:30 / United Kingdom / Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey / GBP/USD
Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled around these dates. Their comments typically generate FX volatility, as they may signal future policy intentions.
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