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Silver (XAG/USD) remains under pressure, and at the time of writing, prices have fallen to $73.63. The white metal is retreating from its recent positions, which is associated with improved market sentiment regarding risks following U.S. President Donald Trump's statement about postponing immediate military intervention against Iran.
The decrease in geopolitical tension temporarily weakens demand for safe-haven assets. Donald Trump reported that negotiations with Iran are ongoing at the initiative of the leaders of the Gulf nations, but emphasized that the United States remains ready to initiate large-scale military actions if diplomatic efforts do not yield results.
Despite this relative easing of tensions, markets are still focused on the economic consequences of the conflict in the region. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to support oil prices and heighten concerns about global inflation.
This situation reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer or even raise interest rates by the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are increasing the probability of additional tightening measures later this year. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields remain near recent highs, with the yield on benchmark 10-year bonds fluctuating around 4.60%.
The rise in yields increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, such as silver. Additionally, the U.S. dollar continues to gain support due to expectations of tighter monetary policy, which diminishes the appeal of the metal to buyers.
From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, indicating weakness among bulls. Prices have found support at $73.63. If this level fails to hold, the next support will be $72.00. The 20-day SMA represents a barrier; overcoming it would allow bulls to gain strength.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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