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Against the backdrop of an unexpected announcement by Donald Trump suspending the naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices declined sharply, with WTI crude returning to the $100 mark.
Many are now speculating whether this is a temporary respite or a new tactic. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced the temporary suspension of Operation "Project Freedom" — a mission to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz under the protection of the US Navy. The reason for this move, according to the American leader, was significant progress in preparing a comprehensive agreement with Iran.
"We mutually agreed that Project Freedom would be temporarily suspended to see if the agreement can be finalized and signed," Trump wrote on his social media. It is important to emphasize that the pause pertains only to the active phase of escorting vessels. The blockade of Iranian ports, as stated by Trump, remains in effect. Moreover, Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the completion of the military operation "Epic Fury," indicating that the US considers its military mission accomplished while continuing to insist on the inadmissibility of Iran developing a military nuclear program.
This sudden diplomatic pause came as a complete surprise to markets — Operation "Project Freedom" had just begun the day before, on May 4, and many traders saw it as a demonstration of strength rather than a gesture of goodwill.
Trump's statements were immediately reflected in oil market quotes. Investors interpreted the news as a signal of possible de-escalation of the conflict, opening the prospect of the restoration of oil supplies from the Persian Gulf region. Notably, WTI briefly returned to the $100 mark, while Brent pulled back to $108.
However, despite the positive momentum, oil prices could quickly rebound as uncertainty surrounding the agreement persists. Trump did not clarify what specific progress had been made and how long the pause would last. Iran has not officially commented on Washington's initiative either. The blockade is still in place.
Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $106.83. This will allow targeting $113.00, above which it will be quite problematic to break through. The furthest target will be the area around $118.80. In the event of a decline in oil prices, bears will attempt to seize control over $100.40. If successful, breaking the range could deal a severe blow to the bulls' positions and push oil down to a low of $92.50, with the potential to reach $86.67.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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