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The GBP/USD pair has reached the psychological level of 1.3500, trading above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Traders are awaiting the outcome of the Bank of England's monetary policy meeting, as well as U.S. economic data, which are expected to provide new direction for the market.
Today, the Bank of England is set to announce its monetary policy decision, and interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. At the same time, current market expectations point to a higher probability of two rate hikes in 2026 due to inflation risks driven by a sharp rise in energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. In this regard, special attention should be paid to comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey during the post-meeting press conference, as his remarks will be closely analyzed for clues about the future path of interest rates. These expectations will have a significant impact on the British pound.
Traders should also focus on the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which could provide additional momentum to GBP/USD during the day.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, along with ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, may continue to support the U.S. dollar, thereby limiting gains in the currency pair.
The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday saw the highest number of dissenting votes since 1992, with three board members opposing a more dovish tone.
Traders have begun adjusting their expectations for further Fed policy easing in 2026; there is now more than a 10% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year.
On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's new proposal to end the two-month conflict and reaffirmed that peace with the Islamic Republic is impossible unless an agreement is reached to halt its nuclear program. Trump also noted that the naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue, creating additional geopolitical risks. This, in turn, supports the U.S. dollar and may restrain gains in GBP/USD.
From a technical perspective, prices remain above key moving averages, and oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market. After breaking above the 1.3500 psychological level, the next resistance lies at 1.3545, followed by the 1.3600 level. Support has been found at the confluence of the 100-day and 20-day SMAs. If this support fails, prices may accelerate downward toward the 200-day SMA near the 1.3400 level.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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