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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The test of the 1.3512 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. However, the pair did not proceed to a significant decline.
In the absence of major statistical data, the U.S. session gains particular importance, with focus shifting to speeches by Federal Reserve representatives. Statements from Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, and Christopher Waller serve as key indicators of sentiment and potential policy actions. Investors and analysts typically follow their remarks closely, looking for hints about future monetary policy. Mary Daly, known for her dovish stance, may emphasize the importance of patience and a gradual approach to policy adjustments—especially given elevated inflation. Thomas Barkin, in contrast, may offer a more pragmatic view, focusing on real economic indicators and a balanced assessment of risks. Most likely, the currency market will react only to unusual or unexpected comments from policymakers.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3539 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3560 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3560, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move). Pound growth today can be expected within the context of a bullish market.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3525 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3539 and 1.3560 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a breakout of the 1.3525 level (red line on the chart), which may lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3496, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pound will return if Fed representatives take a hawkish stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3539 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3525 and 1.3496 can be expected.
Chart Notes
Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
Uz InstaSpot-ove analitičke preglede uvek ćete biti u toku sa tržišnim trendovima! Klijentima InstaSpot-a su dostupni mnogobrojni besplatni servisi za uspešno trgovanje.
