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The EUR/USD pair continued trading within the range of 1.1769–1.1829 throughout Thursday. Therefore, I would consider new trades only after prices break out of this range. A consolidation of the pair below the Fibonacci 61.8% level at 1.1769 would work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a continuation of the decline toward the levels of 1.1696 and 1.1645. A consolidation above the 50.0% corrective level at 1.1829 would allow expectations of a resumption of growth toward the levels of 1.1888 and 1.1963.
The wave picture on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The latest upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave, while the latest downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bullish." The bulls have taken a short pause within a large-scale offensive that might not have happened without Donald Trump. Trump has pushed tensions in the world and within the United States to the limit, and markets continue to react by fleeing from the risky U.S. currency with uncertain economic prospects.
An ECB meeting took place on Thursday, and traders' expectations ahead of it were mixed. I remind you that at the beginning of the year, rumors emerged that in 2026 the ECB would be much closer to tightening monetary policy than to easing it. Tightening is required to reduce inflation, and some experts expect price growth this year. Ahead of the ECB meeting, many traders were already expecting policy easing, as the latest inflation report showed a noticeable slowdown—to 1.7% y/y. In any case, the market was waiting for clarification of the ECB's current stance. However, no clarification was needed. The European Central Bank left all three key interest rates unchanged, and Christine Lagarde stated that in the medium term inflation remains around 2%, which fully satisfies the ECB. A rate change is possible only if inflation begins to move away from the target level on a sustained basis. Thus, the issue of ECB rates is closed for the coming months. The information turned out to be so neutral that there was absolutely no reaction from traders.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 50.0% corrective level at 1.1829 and resumed its decline toward the corrective levels of 61.8% at 1.1770 and 76.4% at 1.1697. A rebound from the 1.1770 level today would work in favor of the European currency and some growth toward 1.1829 and 1.1890. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the latest reporting week, professional players opened 15,101 long positions and closed 5,338 short positions. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions concentrated in the hands of speculators now amounts to 290 thousand, while short positions total 158 thousand. This represents an almost twofold advantage for the bulls.
For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and building up longs. Then the "shutdown" began, and now we are observing the same picture again: professional traders continue to increase long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create many problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the United States—for example, deterioration of the labor market and a decline in global reputation. Traders are also concerned about a potential loss of Fed independence in 2026 and Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions.
News calendar for the U.S. and the European Union:
On February 6, the economic events calendar contains three entries, none of which are of particular interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may be weak.
EUR/USD forecast and advice to traders:
Selling the pair is possible today in the event of a close below the 1.1769 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1696 and 1.1645. Buying will become possible if there is a close above the 1.1829 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1888 and 1.1963.
Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1805–1.1578 on the hourly chart and from 1.1577–1.2083 on the 4-hour chart.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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