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Yesterday, gold once again climbed above the $5,000 mark, recovering strongly after a sell-off toward roughly $4,400 per ounce.
Active dip buying following the historic collapse from record highs helped restore market equilibrium. The current price is about 10% below the all-time high reached on January 29. Year-to-date, gold is still up roughly 17%.
The rally in gold prices is being driven by several key factors. First, they include resilient demand from retail investors and institutional funds treating gold as a safe haven amid geopolitical instability and economic risks. Second, a softer US dollar supports gold by making it more attractive to holders of other currencies. Third, inflation expectations, flagged yesterday by several Fed officials, are also encouraging demand for gold as an inflation hedge.
All of this suggests the near-term outlook for gold remains constructive, albeit not without risks. Further dollar weakness and escalations in US-Iran tensions could push prices to new highs. Conversely, a more restrictive Fed policy could weigh on gold.
Over the long term, gold retains its appeal as a strategic asset in a diversified portfolio. Its ability to preserve value during periods of uncertainty and inflation makes it a useful tool for capital protection and portfolio stability. Many market participants expect gold to deliver steady gains in coming years, supported by structural drivers such as supply constraints and rising demand from emerging markets. Goldman Sachs has even recently published a forecast calling for gold to reach about $8,000 by year-end.
On the technical side, buyers need to secure the nearest resistance level of $5,137 to target $5,223, a level that may prove difficult to breach. The next upside target lies around $5,317. In case of a decline, bears will aim to seize control at $5,051. If that level gives way, a break below it would inflict serious damage to bull positions and could push gold to $4,975 and probably open the path toward $4,893.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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