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The GBP/USD pair has also reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and entered a decline that has now lasted for four consecutive days. As I mentioned earlier, the fundamental justification for the pair's decline raises some questions. However, we should not forget that the euro has worked off a weekly bearish imbalance and received a completely logical reaction. Since the euro and the pound move in the same direction most of the time, it is not surprising that the pound is also continuing to fall.
At the same time, a bullish imbalance 14 is located in close proximity to the current price. The situation is the same as with the euro: either the price reacts to this pattern and traders receive a new bullish signal, or the pattern is invalidated, in which case the dollar will continue its questionable rise. From the perspective of the 2026 fundamental backdrop, it is difficult for me to imagine a prolonged bearish offensive. Still, one cannot be 100% certain that it is impossible. In my view, the most practical strategy for this week is to wait for the reaction of the euro and the pound to their bullish imbalances. The expected news flow is strong and could support either bulls or bears—although, of course, I would prefer it to support the bulls.
Since the bullish trend in the euro remains intact, I believe the bullish trend in the pound also remains intact. I cannot imagine a bullish trend in the euro occurring simultaneously with a bearish trend in the pound. Last week, imbalances 14 and 15 were formed; imbalance 15 has already been invalidated. However, this is not a problem, as below lies the more important imbalance 14, which carries greater significance because a similar pattern exists in the euro. Even if imbalance 14 were to be invalidated, this would not trigger a bearish trend. Given the current fundamental backdrop, I do not see when such a trend could even begin.
The fundamental background on Monday was rather thin, but the UK manufacturing PMI came in above traders' expectations and was better than the previous month's reading. Nevertheless, the pound retreated, which can only be explained by the euro's decline following its rejection from the weekly imbalance. Today, the U.S. ISM manufacturing index will be released and deserves close attention.
In the United States, the overall fundamental backdrop remains such that, in the long term, nothing other than a decline in the dollar can be expected. The situation in the U.S. remains quite complex. The shutdown lasted a month and a half, and Democrats and Republicans agreed on funding only until the end of January, which ends on Saturday. U.S. labor market data continue either to disappoint or to be ignored by the market. The last three FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions, and recent data suggest that the pause in monetary easing will be short-lived. Trump's military aggression, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, the initiation of criminal proceedings against Jerome Powell, and the threat of a new shutdown all neatly complement the current picture of an "American crisis." In my view, bulls have everything they need to continue their offensive throughout 2026 (naturally, with pauses).
A bearish trend would require a strong and stable positive fundamental backdrop for the U.S. dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need a strong dollar, as this would keep the trade balance in deficit. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, despite the fairly strong decline in September and October. Too many risk factors remain hanging like dead weight on the dollar. What exactly are the bears planning to use to push the pound lower? If new bearish patterns emerge, a potential decline in sterling can be reconsidered, but at the moment, none exist.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the United Kingdom
On February 3, the economic calendar contains only one event, and it is not particularly important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday may appear only in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice
For the pound, the picture remains clear—what is missing are new buy signals. Bulls have moved into a new offensive that threatens to become both lengthy and significant.
Since the bullish trend is undeniable, traders are left with only one option: to trade to the upside using clear patterns and well-defined signals. In the near future, traders may expect the formation of a new bullish signal within imbalance 14. I previously considered 1.3725 as a potential upward target; this level has been reached, but the pound could rise much higher in 2026. There are no limits or boundaries—especially considering the events of the first month of the year. If bearish patterns do appear, short trades may also be considered, but within a bullish trend, I personally favor buying rather than selling.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
Uz InstaSpot-ove analitičke preglede uvek ćete biti u toku sa tržišnim trendovima! Klijentima InstaSpot-a su dostupni mnogobrojni besplatni servisi za uspešno trgovanje.
