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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline after consolidating below the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1945. By the end of the day, the pair also consolidated below the 127.2% corrective level at 1.1867. As a result, the decline may continue toward the next Fibonacci level at 100.0% – 1.1805. However, at the moment, the market is moving within a corrective pullback. Therefore, I would expect a resumption of the bullish advance. A close above 1.1867 would allow traders to anticipate some upward movement toward 1.1945 and 1.2031.
The wave picture on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The most recently completed downward wave failed to break the low of the previous wave, while the latest upward wave exceeded the previous peak. Thus, the trend remains bullish. Bulls are continuing a new offensive, one that might not have occurred without Donald Trump. Trump has driven tensions in the world and in the U.S. to extremes, and markets continue to respond by fleeing from the risky U.S. dollar, whose economic outlook remains uncertain.
There was plenty of news on Friday, beginning with economic data from Germany. According to published figures:
All of these reports were positive for the euro. However, bulls had exhausted their appetite for further attacks, so the data went largely ignored. The same was true for broader eurozone statistics: unemployment fell to 6.2%, and GDP grew by 0.3% q/q, exceeding traders' expectations. Yet these figures also failed to support the euro.
By contrast, traders reacted fully to the sole U.S. report — the Producer Price Index (PPI). The index rose 0.5% in December, compared with forecasts of around 0.2%, raising concerns about a renewed acceleration of inflation in the near future, which could prevent the Federal Reserve from continuing monetary easing this year. These were only concerns, but the market took them seriously, allowing the dollar to continue its recovery. Nevertheless, the bullish trend remains intact.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated below the 100.0% correction level at 1.1918, which opens the way for a continuation of the decline toward the next corrective level at 76.4% – 1.1813. A rebound from 1.1813 would allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the euro and a return to 1.1918. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 15,101 long positions and closed 5,338 short positions. Sentiment among the non-commercial group remains bullish, driven largely by Donald Trump and his policies, and continues to strengthen over time.
The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 290,000, while short positions amount to 158,000 — nearly a twofold advantage for the bulls.
For 33 consecutive weeks, large players reduced short positions and increased longs. Then the shutdown began, and now we see the same picture again: professional traders continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous long-term and structural problems for the U.S., such as labor market deterioration and declining global reputation. Traders are also concerned about the potential loss of the Federal Reserve's independence in 2026, as well as Trump's geopolitical ambitions.
Economic Calendar (U.S. & Eurozone)
The economic calendar for February 2 contains five events, of which only one can be considered truly important — the U.S. ISM index. The impact of the news flow on market sentiment on Monday may be moderate.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice
Selling the pair was possible after a close below 1.1945 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1867 and 1.1805. The first target has been reached, and positions may remain open.
Buying opportunities will arise either after a rebound from 1.1805 on the hourly chart or after a close above 1.1867, with targets at 1.1945 and 1.2031.
Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1805–1.1578 on the hourly chart and from 1.1918–1.1471 on the 4-hour chart.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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