11.12.202506:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 11? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Trades on Wednesday:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair moved exactly as most traders expected on Wednesday. It is worth noting that the market does not always react clearly or logically to the FOMC meeting results. Yesterday indeed could have been such a case, as in recent months the dollar has responded to the Federal Reserve's monetary easing with growth. However, this time the dollar fell despite the Fed's promise to pause rate cuts in 2026. Overall, as most experts had anticipated, the key rate was lowered for the third consecutive time, but it was done in advance. There is still no macroeconomic data on the labor market, unemployment, or inflation, so the Fed cannot make a well-informed decision that reflects the current state of the US labor market. As a result, a "pre-emptive" decision was made. Since this decision is "dovish" in any case, the dollar reasonably fell. We have been predicting the rise of the pair for two weeks based solely on the technical reversal at the lower boundary of the sideways channel at 1.1400-1.1830 on the daily timeframe.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were formed yesterday. The first was generated during the European trading session, when the price bounced off the 1.1655 level. The pair moved down by 15 pips, so there were no losses on this trade, and it could have been closed manually for a small profit before the FOMC meeting. After the FOMC meeting, selling the dollar became advisable, and simultaneously, a buy signal was formed in the area of 1.1655-1.1666. Thus, novice traders could open long positions, which are currently in profit.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, even though the price has breached the trend line. The general fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains very weak for the US dollar, so we expect further growth. Even technical factors currently support the euro, as the sideways movement on the daily timeframe persists, and after a reversal near the lower boundary, it is reasonable to expect growth towards the upper boundary.

On Thursday, novice traders can again trade from the area of 1.1655-1.1666, as the price has hovered around this level for six consecutive days. A price bounce from this area will allow for long positions targeting 1.1745-1.1754. A settlement below it would indicate short positions targeting 1.1584-1.1591.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, and 1.1970-1.1988. There are no significant events or reports scheduled in the Eurozone or the US on Thursday. Therefore, volatility may once again drop to minimal levels, and trading will have to rely on "bare" technical analysis.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.