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The test of the 156.25 price coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move above the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying dollars. As a result, the pair rose by more than 50 pips.
Strong US labor market data from ADP and JOLTs supported the dollar's rise against the Japanese yen yesterday. The resilience of the labor market continues to strengthen the dollar's position, despite the high likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut today. The ADP data, reflecting growth in private sector employment, exceeded expectations, signaling sustained business activity and a need for labor. Simultaneously, the JOLTs report, which records the number of job openings, remains at a relatively high level, indicating labor shortages and potential upward pressure on wages.
However, it is important to remember that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates next week, which could quickly change the dynamics of the market, so be extremely cautious with long positions on USD/JPY at current levels.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on executing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 156.92 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 157.25 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 157.25, I intend to exit the longs and open shorts in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from this level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 156.63 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be expected to the opposite levels of 156.92 and 157.25.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 156.63 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be at 156.33, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 156.92 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 156.63 and 156.33.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
Uz InstaSpot-ove analitičke preglede uvek ćete biti u toku sa tržišnim trendovima! Klijentima InstaSpot-a su dostupni mnogobrojni besplatni servisi za uspešno trgovanje.
