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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD has transformed, but overall it remains fairly clear. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, but the wave structure has become significantly more complex and extended since July 1. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which has taken on a very unusual form. Inside this wave, we observe exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline.
I believe that the upward trend segment is not yet complete, and its targets extend all the way to the 1.25 level. The series of waves a-b-c-d-e looks finished, and therefore I expect the formation of a new upward sequence of waves in the coming weeks. We have seen the presumed waves 1 and 2, and the instrument is currently in the process of forming wave 3 or c. I expect that within this wave the instrument may rise to 1.1717, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci level; however, the third wave may formally end at any moment, as it has already exceeded the peak of the first wave.
The EUR/USD exchange rate again barely moved throughout Tuesday. I titled this review accordingly, but it is worth explaining what I mean. Today, the only things to look out for are U.S. job openings data and the employment change figures—this is a fact. There are no other significant events on the calendar. However, at this stage we should not be hoping for rising or falling movement of the instrument. We should hope for any movement at all, because in the last few days the market has been paralyzed.
In reality, I do not place great expectations on the JOLTS and ADP reports. Even if they surprise the market with unexpected values, those values relate either to September or October (JOLTS) or cover only a single week (ADP). Therefore, I do not expect a strong market reaction. The fate of the dollar will be decided tomorrow evening, when the results of the Federal Reserve's meeting are released. Predicting what decisions will be made, what monetary policy direction will be chosen for the coming quarters, or what the Fed governors' outlook on interest rates will be for the coming years is no more reliable than reading tea leaves. This is why I do not even attempt it. One thing is obvious to me—the news backdrop for the U.S. currency is so poor that expecting its strengthening is impossible, even if one wanted it (which I do not).
The wave structure of EUR/USD is bogged down in corrective patterns and appears confused by them. We constantly observe alternating upward and downward wave series, where each new wave is roughly equal to the previous one. This indicates that the market is currently drifting in the middle of an ocean. There are no waves—just small gusts of wind preventing the price from drawing a perfectly horizontal line on the chart.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues forming an upward trend segment. In the last few months, the market has taken a pause, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed remain strong factors that may contribute to future weakening of the U.S. dollar. The targets of the current trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. However, the latest upward segment has again taken on a corrective form, which means that at minimum a downward wave within this segment may begin now, and at maximum—a new downward corrective sequence.
At a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave pattern is not the most standard, as the corrective waves vary in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. But this also happens. I remind you that it is best to identify clear structures on charts instead of fixating on every single wave. Right now, the upward structure is not in doubt.
Core Principles of My Analysis
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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